The Fed and the Sub-Prime Lending Debacle
What the Fed does or fails to do has more effect on the nation’s poor than any other policy making body. When the Fed decides to fight inflation by raising interest rates and cooling the economy, it’s the poor who are the first to be drafted into the inflation fight because their jobs are the most tenuous, and they’re the first to lose them. When the Fed decides to ease up and reduce rates, it’s the poor who are among the first to get the new jobs because employers who are most likely to hire at the start are small service businesses offering jobs at the bottom rungs of the wage scale. The best example of this occurred in the late 90s, when Alan Greenspan bucked conventional economic wisdom and decided that the economy could safely grow fast enough that unemployment dropped to around 4 percent. The result was to create more jobs for people in the bottom fifth of the income ladder – whose total income therefore began to rise for the first time in decades.
But the Fed affects the poor in another way, too. It determines their access to credit. And here as well, the Fed's decisions can either be a great boon to poorer Americans or a huge curse, depending on how responsibly the Fed manages the credit markets. In this respect, it’s done a lousy job in recent years. In the early 2000s, rates were so low that banks didn’t know what to do with all the extra money they had on hand. But instead of keeping an eye on bank lending standards, the Fed looked the other way. The result: Credit standards were disregarded in a tidal wave of sub-prime lending to the poor home buyers – often without down payments, often with mortgage interest rates that would rise if and when the prime rate went upward. Then what happened? The Fed raised short-term rates seventeen consecutive times, catching poor borrowers in the very trap the Fed allowed banks to set for them. So now millions of poorer Americans face foreclosures on their homes, and sub-prime lenders are in trouble.
Will anyone hold the Fed responsible? Answer: No. Does anyone know how to hold the Fed responsible? Answer: No.
But the Fed affects the poor in another way, too. It determines their access to credit. And here as well, the Fed's decisions can either be a great boon to poorer Americans or a huge curse, depending on how responsibly the Fed manages the credit markets. In this respect, it’s done a lousy job in recent years. In the early 2000s, rates were so low that banks didn’t know what to do with all the extra money they had on hand. But instead of keeping an eye on bank lending standards, the Fed looked the other way. The result: Credit standards were disregarded in a tidal wave of sub-prime lending to the poor home buyers – often without down payments, often with mortgage interest rates that would rise if and when the prime rate went upward. Then what happened? The Fed raised short-term rates seventeen consecutive times, catching poor borrowers in the very trap the Fed allowed banks to set for them. So now millions of poorer Americans face foreclosures on their homes, and sub-prime lenders are in trouble.
Will anyone hold the Fed responsible? Answer: No. Does anyone know how to hold the Fed responsible? Answer: No.
posted by Robert Reich | 10:59 AM
56 Comments:
The Fed is a racket.
That's an interesting assessment. There is a lot of finger pointing going on right now, but it hadn't occurred to me that the Fed had played a role in this.
What should they have done?
It is more than just the Fed professor. In CT we buy power from hedge funds who convert coal and nuclear energy into electricity and are allowed, thanks to Enron lobbying, as if they were burning natural gas. The robber barrons have returned via lobbying under the guise of de-regulation. The poor really feel the pain of this.
So, repeal of common sense regulation coupled with a society that worships entertainers and doesn't bother to vote or value productive enterprises (why is Wall St. worshipped more than manufacturing?) has created a fine mess that is only just starting to unfold. The sub-prime debacle is the tip of the iceberg...
Although I have no formal economic background, life's hard knocks have taught me something. As a loyal democrat I am confused by your recent calls for lower interest rates. Below are my reasons which I posted on the Democratic blog site.
Kocking on Housing's Door
Recently Allen Greenspan supported increased high tech immigration, opining that upper wage immigration would in effect cap high wage earner's salaries by duplicating, within our borders the current trade policy of aligning our low wage worker's income by increasing the availability of a lower cost global workforce. How aligning, i.e. lowering the current wages of Americans, dove-tails with Maestro Greenspan's comment that if home prices go up 10 percent, the subprime mortgage problem will disappear, I will leave to those better versed in Heuristics. But I also recall that former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan urged homeowners to shift from fixed to floating rate mortgages only months prior to raising interest rates.
However, I give Greenspan credit for his candor. Those who blithely inform us that an engineer or medical diagnostician displaced at fifty will learn new careers. As quickly as Tom Friedman might Google the facts for his next book, The World Is Bumpy, are simply avoiding the fact that trade bills they supported had the consequence of lowering wages. So democrats who offer bail-outs had better watch were they throw that water. Any commitment to debt financing from congress will only further erode upward mobility. The Maestro's successor, Ben Bernanke, hasn't been very encouraging either. We still hear that wages, a lagging indicator, are targeted by the Federal Reserve as inflationary, that tax-cuts are always good, despite no broad revival in the private sector and the elimination of pay-go, a provision which helped to curb unfunded spending, has increased the federal deficit.
The next candidate had better come clean and admit that wages are falling because of a deliberate trade policy of global re-alignment. If Flatlanders like Thomas Friedman were correct and globalization was a win win, ask yourself why were low and no-interest loans needed? If increased education at the higher wage level explains wage disparity, why seek to cap upper income wages thru high tech immigration?
Historically, insofar as one wanted to force our politicians into expressing an opinion, those in government will paint just the opposite picture from that which one who follows politics from an ideological position might assume. In an odd reversal of roles, conservatives will excuse the questionable economic behavior of individuals offering that government made them do it; a line of reasoning they so often criticize in liberalism as an evasion of individual responsibility. While liberals, who support the use of government to promote good civil behavior, will seek to guarantee government loans to the very private capital investors who's risky behavior undermined the responsible citizenship that liberals seek to foster. In truth, both government policies and greed are to blame. Congress appropriates hundreds of billions of dollars more than it takes in, doing so, it encourages speculation in risky assets as a hedge against future currency deflation.
Democrats need to do more than make vague promises of better management or mouth slogans like investing in technology is investing in America's future. Education and investing in technology are good things. As May West said; if something is good, more of it is better. But is it really a surprise that many in our society wish we could turn back from free trade. The trade agreements sold to the American people should have had a warning, fasten your seat-belts. Instead free trade was sold as a smooth ride. No one in either party bothered to mention that American wages and currency would need to be re-calibrated.
Our economy will continuously be realigned thru free-trade, but does it necessarily follow that it was previously out of alignment? The main reason behind the competitiveness of imported products and increasingly services lies in the mass availability of a lower salaried global work force and the differentials across currencies. Currency traders know that until assets are aligned globally, something which will never happen, some will win and some will lose.
Halliburton shows us that tariffs are no longer a problem for the corporations, the next outsourcing will be the corporate multinationals themselves. Bribed in the form of lower or no corporate taxes some of these multi-nationals might make promises to stay in America, but only after a new round of corporate welfare is sold by our politicians as job creation. As democrats, lets hope its not sold to us by someone we've voted for.
"So now millions of poorer Americans face foreclosures on their homes, and sub-prime lenders are in trouble."
We're seeing this play out in real time. Mortgage companies will sometimes agree to take foreclosures off sheriff's sales lists if some attempt is made by the mortgagor (i.e., borrower)to cure. If the cure doesn't happen--and rarely does it--the the sales are relisted. The number of sheriff's sales being relisted is growing.
I have to agree with the last Anonymous poster about the subprime debacle layers being the tip of the proverbial iceberg. Mortgage equity withdrawal cannot continue forever in the face of falling house prices. The extent of financial in our society is becoming apparent, as many of the people who withdrew home equity to pay off their credit cards, are now using credit cards to pay for groceries along with convenience checks to pay their mortgages.
Sooner or later, the American consumer will find that the cubboard is bare, and not a piaster more to be borrowed. Major credit card issuers charge an average of 14% overall, and 18% to students. Where is Congress in all of this?
When home owners and college students get bent over backwards by legal usury, how well does this phenomenon augur for the resiliency and health of our society?
Check out the series by cactus at Angry Bear. He has been looking at the Fed's actions in relation to elections. He has used M1, M2, Fed rate, GDP. Hanky panky is going on.
His latest summary post is the last post for yesterday, Thursday 3-22 under: The Fed, Presidential Elections, Coincidence - Part 9.
Angry Bear at: http://www.angrybear.blogspot.com/
"The best example of this occurred in the late 90s, when Alan Greenspan bucked conventional economic wisdom and decided that the economy could safely grow fast enough that unemployment dropped to around 4 percent."
^ Are those the cuts in response to the asian financial crisis? Which led to "the best economy in 30 yrs"? It was a bright spot in my blue collar working career...only wish it lasted longer.
PS I saw you on CNBC speaking on the recent budget bill being portrayed as "pork" You were great. Nice to see some old Democratic fight in someone! Thanks. ;)
How conservatives,with a straight face, after running up huge deficits, and losing track of 9 billion on a pallet to Iraq. Can complain about pork is beyond me?
They're more interested in reinforcing negative party stereotypes, than effective government.
You asked what were the other USAs doing that did not get them fired...
A quote from Paul Krugman on the "Welcome to Pottersville" blog...
"...Donald Shields and John Cragan, two professors of communication, have compiled a database of investigations and/or indictments of candidates and elected officials by U.S. attorneys since the Bush administration came to power. Of the 375 cases they identified, 10 involved independents, 67 involved Republicans, and 298 involved Democrats. The main source of this partisan tilt was a huge disparity in investigations of local politicians, in which Democrats were seven times as likely as Republicans to face Justice Department scrutiny. - Paul Krugman, Department of Injustice..."
Pottersville
http://welcome-to-pottersville.blogspot.com/
Truthout has full Krugman "Department of Injustice" text here
http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/030907D.shtml
We're finally reaping the harvest of deregulation (or lax regulation) that has taken place since the Reagan presidency. Pretty soon, we're going to understand - beyond a doubt and in a very personal way - why our grandparents were so fond of the strict regulation of business and industry (especially the financial "markets").
Usury, liberal lendng practices, ridiculous P/E ratios, deficit spending, and an absurd trust that "the market will take care of itself" (along with the unrealistic inference that it will, in the process, take care of the greater public), have shown the real result of unbridled capitalism. Globalization and outsourcing of manufacturing and technical services jobs have not helped (mark my words: the global economy will destroy the American middle class).
The reasonable and fair regulation of business and industry allowed Americans to achieve the greatest period of wealth and security known to man during the second half of the 20th century.
Too bad we'll have to learn the hard lessons again.
P.S: Are we only allowed one comment per thread? I keep posting, but the posts never show up. That's not a good return on investment. Wat up wit dat?
What comes first - excessive federal spending or higher interest rates?
Isn't the federal reserve simply responding to high inflationary spending by the federal government?
The Fed raises the interest rate to drain the economy of too many dollars. High interest rates hurt the poor and creates unemployment.
Why not drain the economy of excess dollars by removing dallars from the super wealthy and the international corporations via taxation aand tariffs and at the same time give breaks to people who crate jobs here in the U.S.?
That would drain cash from those who have enough not to create a hardship and create employment at the same time.
Charity begins at home. Let's take care of American workers first and worry about the Global economy second.
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Oh, I see at last....
Not only Roosevelt's "chicken in every pot" philosophy...the new progressive mantra...."home ownership from the taxpayers to all"....
Come on.....what did you expect Bob?
There is no free lunch and you cannot have home ownership for those that do not want to work for it..
I don't really get the issue here. Mortgage brokers fudged the paperwork to get laons for people who shouldn't have gotten them, the borrowers fudged their incomes on the application with a *wink-wink* from the brokers, and the mortgage banks all looked the other way for short-term gratification. Now who loses out? The mortgage banks. The people who bought the mortgage-backed securities - who either knew the risks or should have known them. The only thing "predatory" is when the borrower doesn't know what he/she is getting into. The only regulation should be full disclosure. But in most cases, these people are going to be walking away with nothing more than dinged up credit - it is the stupid bankers and their firms who will take the hit - WHY SHOULD THE GOVERNMENT BAIL THEM OUT? I don't get why.
"There is no free lunch and you cannot have home ownership for those that do not want to work for it.."
^Nice when there's contempt for working people. But not for the greed and Enron's of the world.
Yo Bob,
You following this one?
China is peeved about a seemingly bizarre trade sanction imposed by the commerce department.
It all makes more sense when you follow the political connections.
Quoting a previous comment.
"Major credit card issuers charge an average of 14% overall, and 18% to students"
Where have you been hiding? You all should wish you were paying 14%. I bet everyone gets their data from the credit card companies. I can see 2 mistakes:
1. You were told that they only charge 14%,
2. You believed them.
Dear Mr. Reich,
Last year TAP ran an article about the need for Democrats to communicate their fundamental values. Last week I sent you an email about the resolution filed with the Texas Democratic Party to adopt "Why We Are Democrats" as the Party vision.
It is structured list of eleven fundamental values that Democrats share...otherwise there would be more Republicans, Libertarians and non-voters.
It's not a list of policies or agenda items. It is a vision. To put it simply, visions lead; agendas and policies implement.
You have seen earlier versions and so I urge you to review "Why We Are Democrats" and consider the information presented in the PDF posted on http://www.southwest-team.com
Are these my thoughts only? No, Hannah from Boston/Chicago and I, a Texan from a rural county, simply took the time over a three year period to research, talk with active Democrats and other Americans to compile this list. I am the wordsmith, that's all.
Why is this important?
Imagine how different our country would be today if all Americans had an instinctive understanding of the Democratic Party stands for.
Why me?
Because I have no political ambitions. I don't want to move up in the Democratic Party, run for office, be a pundit, write a book, or work for anyone. I just want a country that is Democratic, free, secure...and, quite frankly, a country that doesn't require that I constantly "watch my back."
Why am I bothering you with this?
I've talked with Alice Garamond, Barbara Mansfield, and Boyd Richie among others. I hope to talk with you, as well. Because, quite frankly, I am truly grassroots and that means your opinion and your voice carries more weight in a split second than does one full year of my efforts. Sad, but true.
You may know my cousin, also from MA
Kim Paxson
http://www.southwest-team.com
Really a great effort by you. Very nice and informatic blog
Keep doing it. write something to make this world beautiful.
99% Bachelor
Professor Reich, please post more often.
Thanks,
Doug
What you fail to point out, Mr. Reich, is that 90% of the people who have those subprime loans are going to keep their house. Without the subprime market, these people wouldn't even be in homes in the first place. Sure, we can have 0% foreclosures by requiring everybody to purchase their home with cash. We will then be going back to the "good old days" of the early 20th century when very few people owned their own home. Somewhere between the all-cash purchase and "exotic" mortgages there is a happy medium. Just be careful in advocating restrictions on the subprime market because many of the poor people you want to help won't even have access to credit to purchase a home.
Everybody says there is this RACE problem. Everybody says this RACE problem will be solved when the third world pours into EVERY white country and ONLY into white countries.
The Netherlands and Belgium are more crowded than Japan or Taiwan, but nobody says Japan or Taiwan will solve this RACE problem by bringing in millions of third worlders and quote assimilating unquote with them.
Everybody says the final solution to this RACE problem is for EVERY white country and ONLY white countries to "assimilate," i.e., intermarry, with all those non-whites.
What if I said there was this RACE problem and this RACE problem would be solved only if hundreds of millions of non-blacks were brought into EVERY black country and ONLY into black countries?
How long would it take anyone to realize I'm not talking about a RACE problem. I am talking about the final solution to the BLACK problem?
And how long would it take any sane black man to notice this and what kind of psycho black man wouldn't object to this?
But if I tell that obvious truth about the ongoing program of genocide against my race, the white race, Liberals and respectable conservatives agree that I am a naziwhowantstokillsixmillionjews.
They say they are anti-racist. What they are is anti-white.
Anti-racist is a code word for anti-white.
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