The Way to Prevent the Looming Recession
With the economy heading for recession, all eyes are on Ben Bernanke and the Fed, and the question everyone is asking is how much the Fed will cut short-term interest rates to stimulate the economy. But a Fed rate cut won't stimulate the economy. That's because lending institutions, fearing their portfolios are far riskier than they assumed several months ago, won't lend lots more just because the Fed lowers interest rates.
Average consumers are already so deep in debt -- record levels of mortgage debt, bank debt, and credit-card debt -- they can't borrow much more, anyway. With average home prices dropping faster than they've dropped since the Great Depression, many can't even refinance. And given last Friday’s report showing the first employment drop in four years, people are not in the mood to keep spending.
So if a Fed rate cut can't prevent a recession, what can? Putting more money into American pockets by cutting their taxes. Yes, I know: Tax cuts have gone out of style ever since Democrats became born-again deficit hawks, and George Bush squandered the $5 trillion surplus he inherited in 2000 mainly by cutting taxes on the rich.
But with a recession looming, Democrats need to stop being the party of Herbert Hoover economics. And the Republican need to understand tax cuts for the rich won't help because the rich don’t increase their spending when their taxes are cut. They already spend as much as they want to spend. That's what it means to be rich.
It's middle and lower-income Americans who spend more when their taxes are cut. And because the biggest tax they face is the payroll tax, the payroll tax needs to be cut in order to keep them spending and avoid a recession.
I say exempt the first $15,000 of earnings from payroll taxes for a year, starting as soon as possible. Sure, this may cause the budget deficit to widen a bit. But if the economy goes into the tank, the deficit will be far bigger.
Average consumers are already so deep in debt -- record levels of mortgage debt, bank debt, and credit-card debt -- they can't borrow much more, anyway. With average home prices dropping faster than they've dropped since the Great Depression, many can't even refinance. And given last Friday’s report showing the first employment drop in four years, people are not in the mood to keep spending.
So if a Fed rate cut can't prevent a recession, what can? Putting more money into American pockets by cutting their taxes. Yes, I know: Tax cuts have gone out of style ever since Democrats became born-again deficit hawks, and George Bush squandered the $5 trillion surplus he inherited in 2000 mainly by cutting taxes on the rich.
But with a recession looming, Democrats need to stop being the party of Herbert Hoover economics. And the Republican need to understand tax cuts for the rich won't help because the rich don’t increase their spending when their taxes are cut. They already spend as much as they want to spend. That's what it means to be rich.
It's middle and lower-income Americans who spend more when their taxes are cut. And because the biggest tax they face is the payroll tax, the payroll tax needs to be cut in order to keep them spending and avoid a recession.
I say exempt the first $15,000 of earnings from payroll taxes for a year, starting as soon as possible. Sure, this may cause the budget deficit to widen a bit. But if the economy goes into the tank, the deficit will be far bigger.
posted by Robert Reich | 1:57 PM
52 Comments:
Maybe. Then again, a tax cut may not be enough. Need to re-carve the economic pie and make the slice for health care smaller, so that other slices can get bigger. The time has come for HR 676, National Health Insurance (single payer, not single provider).
great entry...
i still can't believe Bernanke took sooooooooooo dammmmmmn loooooooooong to act. im beginning to lend more credence to the idea that academia often lives on another planet.
aly k
Not sure what you mean by exempting the first $15K from _payroll_ taxes. You mean from income taxes? There is virtually no tax on the first $15K already...
"Republican need to understand tax cuts for the rich won't help because the rich don’t increase their spending when their taxes are cut."
Hmm. This implies that they don't decrease their spending when their taxes are raised, either. So screw 'em, raise taxes on the rich to 100%!
That's what it means to be rich: everybody thinks your money belongs to them.
This is a great idea. Not only is it sensible economic policy, but it has a political chance to get passed and signed.
JK Galbraith would have been proud :)
Sorry sir,
But this isn't making any sense to me. A recession will happen because more money was borrowed and invested than real economic conditions would allow for. Cheap credit made money easier to borrow than it should have been and businesses and homeowners alike are heading toward this discrepancy in capital allocation vs. real demand.
Getting people to spend more isn't going to mask the fact that capital is overextended and misallocated. This overextension and misallocation, induced by cheap credit and the confusing market signals they create, is the artificial sugar high from the spending spree that seemed sound at the time. But the high is wearing off and now we find ourselves all dressed up with no where to go.
Capital goods will suffer first and the most. The demand isn't there and it never was. The bad investments will have to be liquidated and reinvested elsewhere.
And no amount of fiddling with consumer spending power can skew this reality....especially if it's just going to be on the first $15,000.
Again, sir, making things right means fixing what's wrong. And if consumers not having enough problem , then we could have done this a long time ago. But, such things would still have happened so this isn't the problem obviously.
Believe me, tax cuts are fine. It's nice to think people keeping their more of what they earn is a good thing...I just wish it didn't take a pending crisis for many to think so. The irony is that such a good idea is actually a bad reason under your circumstances and intent.
The recession cannot be stopped anymore. The money is spent, the capital is tied up and the bills are coming due.
Sir,
I happened to hear part of your interview in NPR today. I am glad you are touching very good points.
I would like to know about future of USA when it's internal debt ( 9 trillion dollars)
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/09/06/notebook/main3238787.shtml
and external debt ( assuming it to be 5 trillion dollars, correct me on this.) I am imagining that US dollar is over valued against all major international currencies by 50 to 60%. Correction is since long due. Like a stock market crash if 1987, is US Dollar going crash like rock falling from sky or is there going to be a soft landing? Can you please clarify?
"I say exempt the first $15,000 of earnings from payroll taxes for a year, starting as soon as possible. Sure, this may cause the budget deficit to widen a bit. But if the economy goes into the tank, the deficit will be far bigger. "
Did I just hear a Laffer curve argument? Did Robert Reich just suggest that lower tax rates lead to higher revenue than you would otherwise get?
Don't get me wrong, I agree with this idea; I'm just surprised to hear it from Robert Reich.
Mr. Reich:
I just heard you speak on WHYY/Fresh Air this afternoon, and I wanted to say thank you for your comments. As a financial professional myself, I've often been turned off by the current administration's bail-out strategies of large companies at the expense of the poor schumck who made that company money. At a time when CEOs are bringing home record compensation packages that have nill to do with performance, the average Joe is getting passed over for raises because production is down. While I lean Republican, this is where I deviate: I see no value in under-valuing the people who make a company successful. The corporate shift toward cheaper and faster has only resulted in a demoralized workforce and some very fat cats at the top. Thanks again for your insight!
Julia Rose
Reich is advocating decreasing state income while keeping spending the same.
The government has to fund the deficit either by issuing some kind of bond or devaluing the currency.
If it sells bonds, the value of the bonds will have to equal the increase in the deficit plus interest. If it inflates the currency, it will divert the amount of the deficit to state projects plus destroy wealth by inflation-driven economic havoc.
Either way, there will be no additional private investment, plus some degree of wealth destroyed by manipulation of the money supply.
Too many of Reich's arguments are based upon his sense of (in)justice. The rich have been getting a free ride and it is time to restore the balance (or,perhaps, punish them). This is great morality, but not good economics.
The problem in the US is that we are spending more money than we are taking in. The elephant in the room is the half trillion per year spent on militarism. I know pols like to make a Keynesian argument that this keeps the economy going, but it doesn't. Building high-tech weapons and then using them to blow things up is a poor way to invest federal dollars (even if they are borrowed).
If there is a recession (I think it already started) then what is needed is to redirect the money to where it will do the greatest good. What this is, has been discussed frequently: improved education, health services, infrastructure and the like.
Getting people to buy more Chinese crap at Walmart is not the way to do it. It's time everyone stopped promoting "growth" as the solution to all our problems. We already have too much "stuff", it's just that it is spread around unevenly.
We need to seriously start discussion how to transition to a sustainable economy, one that doesn't consume more than can be regenerated. The world is already consuming 1.5 earth's worth of renewable resources each year. This can't keep up.
Let's stop trying to patch the leaky boat of capitalism/consumerism and work on a new model.
Has the country went too far in malaise and collapse to ever fully recover.
Foreclosures are at record levels, and the first quarter of 2008 will prove devasting as many balloon payments will be due, and credit will be near extinction.
Mr. Reich;
I'm listening to your interview with Terry Gross.
Having recently watched Adam Curtis' excellent BBC documentary "The Trap", can we not view our world of big-box retail, low prices and offshored-manufactured cheap goods we don't need, can we not lay at least some of the blame on the supply-side capitalist ideals which overtook American politics and marketing in the post-war era?
Today, Americans are at the business end of a structure which markets exclusively to their wants and desires. Thanks to just-in-time manufacturing and supply-side capitalism, we are held responsible for the economic effects when we choose not to buy those products we're told to want and expected to buy. It is no longer our individual capital which moderates our buying decisions, so much as our individual desires.
If we don't buy the goods we're sold at Wal-Mart, we're boned. If we do buy them, we're just prolonging the inevitable.
tax cuts? Are you crazy? This is the worst post you've done so far.
I like Robert Feinman's comments.
Perhaps we could fund some of the infrastructure needs, as well as tax cuts to people, or incentivize them to save, by cutting subsidies to fossil fuel and other industries. Not to mention returning to a sane foreign policy.
It is so blatantly obvious that poor (and "middle class") people will put money back into the economy, as you say. I don't know economic theory all that well, but this is simple to understand. How do the trickle-down people get away with their theory, which is bunk? They have all the money they need to invest, so cutting the taxes of the wealthy does not stimulate the economy at all. Again, it's bunk that if you raise their taxes they won't create more jobs. I'd love to see a debate between both camps, because it's an easy debate to win.
First 15,000 is a good start. I'd go with the first $30,000.
Sometimes you need a recession, for example, it cleans up the economy from excess inventory.
Anonymous, we need more than simple right wing, supply side rhetoric.
If you are so for the free market, then the financial services company that blew the $1 billion should not have been floated by the Fed. They should have failed. Period. Their ownership and managers should have gone bust and lost their jobs. THAT is the free market. It is not "run to the government because I'm too big to fail". BULLSHIT.
If you disagree, then you must afree with Mr. Reich point of cutting taxes to the middle class. They are in trouble, through no fault of their own. The same companies that benefited from the Bush cuts are the same companies that outsourced American jobs and continue to raise prices while putting dangerous and UNREGULATED products on the market.
You can't have it both ways...although the rich, right wing feels they are entitled to it.
Got a better idea. Increase the minimum wage to a living wage.....call it 11.50 an hour.....This will raise wages across the board....if you are someone who is currently getting paid above min-wage there is a reason for it, and if the differential isn't maintained you will quit your supervisor job at UPS and go take a cushy job at Barnes and Noble...
If you go pumping money into the economy this way, it will EXPLODE in a good way. You want to see some economic activity? Pump an extra $200 a week into the hands of the poor.....it won't (unfortunately) even hurt the capital class too much as increased activity will offset what they pay out in wages.
"Vitam Vas"
Mr. Reich,
You are leading America down the wrong path now just like you did in the Clinton Administration. Yes, it sounds good that people like myself would finally get a real tax break instead of the Bush giveaway to multi billionaires but the reality. Who is it you are trying to keep out of recession? Let me see, Americans take their extra money an go to Walmart an buy what? Clothes from Honduras and electronics from China. I commend you for finding a great way to run up our national debt even more to keep foreign economies from recession. If we are going to engage in deficit spending how about we shore up a few of those bridges so that more Americans don't end up in a river on the way home from work. There are likely TRILLIONS in infrastructure spending that could improve our country and provide paying jobs for people to go out and spend money in the economy. Did China pay you to say tax cuts Mr. Reich?
I also agree with another post here suggesting military spending must be cut. I don't think there is a doubt about that. It will either be cut now when we can save a few dollars or else it will be cut later when the world stops lending us money. As for taxing the rich I think it is a fantastic idea. Back when Democrats were in firm control of the country, you know, when America was at its greatest in the 50's and 60's, taxes on the rich were astronomical. What a coincidence! Anyway, the rich won't need that money anyway. They should all be drafted into the miliatry, handed an M16 and learn to fight and die for the country like the rest of us.
Bernanke's credibility is in question simply for the fact he has to backtrack and decrease rates. Why not reduce taxes on consumers? The tax cuts for the wealthy allow increased consolidation of capital, while capitalization at the lower end has decreases.
Tax incentives at the middle and lower classes can increase enterprise and small business ventures as well as stimulate consumer activity. The uneven tax burden is an unequal distribution of capital.
I think it would help to increase incentives and qualified exemptions such as medical expenses, child care, education, mortgages, and add a few, like an exemption for startup businesses.
Perhaps I'm wrong here, but I'm still trying to figure out why there is a payroll tax at all.
Maybe some sort of capitol gains tax is ok, or use tax, or even for social security, but when I trade eight hour of my day for eight hour of pay, then there is zero profit involved. Give us back what they shouldn't be taking from us to begin with, then, as the rich say, maybe I'll think about putting some of it back into circulation.
This is also a great way to defund big government.
The Fed will have a big problem when it tries to lower the interest rate. At 5 percent, it was just enough to keep foreign investors interested in keeping their money here in the states. If he lowers it enough to reverse the recession he has (purposely) created by raising interest rates when inflation was nowhere in sight, he will find that overseas dollarholders will mutiny and the dollar will start to slide. He will then have to raise the interest rate back to 5 percent to prevent this. He is between a rock and a hard place created by Mr. Greenspan, himself, and other bankers over the last 30 years, and now there is no way out. He really has very little control over interest rates because the well-off in this country are`"encouraging" him to hold the dollar high, which, as another commenter has pointed out, has been the problem all along.
The Fed will have a big problem when it tries to lower the interest rate. At 5 percent, it was just enough to keep foreign investors interested in keeping their money here in the states. If he lowers it enough to reverse the recession he has (purposely) created by raising interest rates when inflation was nowhere in sight, he will find that overseas dollarholders will mutiny and the dollar will start to slide. He will then have to raise the interest rate back to 5 percent to prevent this. He is between a rock and a hard place created by Mr. Greenspan, himself, and other bankers over the last 30 years, and now there is no way out. He really has very little control over interest rates because the well-off in this country are`"encouraging" him to hold the dollar high, which, as another commenter has pointed out, has been the problem all along.
Anon:
The payroll tax was put in to fund Social Security because it was the only way to sell the plan at the time. One couldn't tell people they were saving for their own retirement, because that would leave it open to arguments about rate of return and size of payout compared to contributions.
So it was sold as an "insurance" plan. Then the "premiums" needed to be segregated so the whole thing matched the metaphor.
I don't think that it was anticipated at the time that the withholding rate would rise as high as it has, or that it would become as anti-progressive either.
The "insurance" metaphor is what keeps the limit of wages subject to withholding from being raised. If you can't collect more than a certain amount in benefits why should you pay a higher premium?
People don't understand government-administered social insurance programs, and the right wants to keep it that way.
As Robert Feinman points out, the payroll tax is intended to fund social security. It is not a general income tax and, if there are revenue losses, then you cannot cut general spending to make up for those losses. You have to cut social security programs. Is this a stealth move by Robert Reich to kill social security? Or does he really believe that we are on the wrong side of the laffer curve with respect to payroll taxes.
If it is the latter, what data does he have to back up this claim, or is this just a content free post? And if we are on the wrong side of the laffer curve, how does this interact with the fact that payroll taxes are capped (so it is not a guarantee that, as people make more money, the government takes in more revenue)?
The way to prevent a recession (aka depression) is to quit spending and lower taxes to a flat 10% across the board for anybody, corporation or even these phony political think tanks. Elect conservatives and keep your damned hands out of my pocket. $3 trillion plus dollars have been spent on the "Great Society" since 1968 and we still haven't made a dent into the so-called needs of people. Enough already.
We are already giving payroll taxes back in the form of the earned income tax credit. Have you forgotten that?
Many would be in worse shape if you passed that payroll tax cut because it would mess up their earned income tax credit and maybe their medicaid.
For those who think Social Security doesn't have a good payback, you need to ask those who have used it. Ask the man who is paralyzed and can't work. Ask the children whose parent died. Ask the elderly who have paid into SS out of every paycheck so they could retire with dignity without losing everything they have. Each of these people will be taken care of with Social Security as they should be. It is their money, pooled together to be used as their turn comes.
It isn't for the elite to use to invest in the market. For many it is their life investment.
Mr. Reich if you are going to represent Democrats, it may pay you to think about certain things.
The stock market cannot substain the retirement of all Americans. Prices cannot go up forever. The prices are so high now for medical care, gas, housing and a lot of other products that life is grim for many, especially the bottom 50%.
Expanding overseas has helped the market, but it has also brought in millions of other investors that want their share of the pie.
As was suggested earlier, there are too many taking too much of the pie. Medicare is being ruined by the cost of medical insurance and other medical costs. What about price controls? I laughed as I type that, thinking of the shuddering probably going on.
Are you sure you are a Democrat?
The notion that the rich don't "spend" their additional income is absurd. What do you suppose they do with it? Eat it? Hide it under their mattress so they can earn -2% a year in inflation returns? Not likely.
No, they use it to finance capital accumulation -- you know, the other part of GDP = C + I + G. Man, do some of you need to retake ECON 101.
Hi to all,
if you have any thoughts on what will the FED do on September, 18th on the light of the recent market turmoil, please feel free to leave your vote on my blog's poll at:
http://www.thedailyeconomist.blogspot.com/
best,
Bernardo.zfxr
As a lifelong Texas Democrat, I identify with the late Ann Richards' comment that politicianss would get a lot more done if they didn't always want to get the credit for their suggestions. Since you are not running for public office but a former cabinet member in a Democratic administration, I hope that you can get the Democratic Party and its candidates to go along with your idea of not taxing the first $15,000 of income. This will help the bottom two thirds of wage earners to pay for higher food and energy prices with the 7.65% they currently pay in Social Security and Medicare taxes. It would also go along with "all for one and one for all" thinking which we Americans are pretty bad at right now.
Robert-
Next time you're on Kudlow & Co, ask him two questions: (1) How come Warren Buffet, arguably the best investor in the U.S., has only mentioned two persons he would be interested in for President -- Clinton and Obama? And (2) Does Larry understand that the "Free Markets" he so harps on do NOT include corporate welfare, special tax breaks for hedge fund managers, and bailouts by the Fed? Thanks for standing up to that Laffer Curveball. PS Deficits do matter.
I'm a little late in realizing you have a blog. Great to see. All the best from Cambridge, MK
Vote in GOP across the board for insurance that taxes and spending will be under control. All of you progressives, i.e., commie libs better get in line to leave the country for Russia when this surprise happens. This country will regain it's footings.
Ever notice how "anonymous" hides behind his moniker to avoid having to defend his sad shibboleths and plutocratic screed? Coward.
Are we talking about not taking PAYROLL taxes out of the first $15,000? Aren't income taxes pretty much non-existent at that level anyway, especially with the EITC taken into account?
Furthermore, wouldn't a payroll relief help small businesses that have to cover 6% of it?
Are we presuming that the funds needed to cover SS would be then coming out of the general fund?
I own a copy of The Future of Success. Lost my IT job when it went offshore, got a nurse tech license, and I liked, to paraphrase, caring for elders/youngers is labor intensive. Yes, indeed, it is. To paraphrase another titan, a while back Alan Greenspan stated "it will mean a lot of pain for a lot of people" when he referred to...jobs going offshore or something related. Credit card debt: why is there one interest rate across the board? If I lost a job to offshoring, who is looking out for my credit card interest rates, which should be reduced to near zero. I returned to school, got a nurse tech license, got a clinical trails two year degree, and am clinging to health care for job security...but who lowers my credit card interest rates? I guess Supercapitalism states: me.
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Sir,
This may be the most internally inconsitent piece of yours I have read yet.
You claim that the fed cuts will not work as the banks are overcoutions and will not lend. Then you claim that the conusmer is in debt and yet he will spend if he gets a tax break. Please explian why he would not retire some of his debt? Or why fed cuts wil not help if it lowers his interest cost ( not here I grant there must be a passthough which may not happen).
Would not be more honest of you to just say the you do not like fed cuts becaue they will help everyone,and not just he target you have in mind.
I can assure you that a fed cut is more likely to avert that crises than a targeted tax cut for the very consumers you own piece claims are tapped out spending wise- your best case outcome it that they spend and thus make themslves even more vulnerable when the next downtrun comes-- and your worst is that they actually act in there own best interest and retire debt which ( at least when the rich do it )you claim is not stimulative
I realize that you must make some political comment but it would be best if you do not contradict yourself within the same essay. I find that few will remember what you said last week and so that time frame should work out well :)
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tax cuts for the rich won't help because the rich don’t increase their spending when their taxes are cut. They already spend as much as they want to spend. That's what it means to be rich.
If, as you say, "the rich" spend as much as they want to spend on themselves, then doesn't that mean their marginal tax dollar comes out of their savings and investment?
And isn't it the savings and investment of "the rich" the source of the majority of jobs in the US economy?
If we tax the rich more, and they continue to spend "as much as they want," then what, exactly do they buy less of? Labor, perhaps?
With the economy heading for recession, all eyes are on Ben Bernanke and the Fed, and the question everyone is asking is how much the Fed will cut short-term interest rates to stimulate the economy. But a Fed rate cut won’t stimulate the economy. That’s because lending institutions, fearing their portfolios are far riskier than they assumed several months ago, won’t lend lots more just because the Fed lowers interest rates.
Average consumers are already so deep in debt — record levels of mortgage debt, bank debt, and credit-card debt — they can’t borrow much more, anyway. With average home prices dropping faster than they’ve dropped since the Great Depression, many can’t even refinance. And given last Friday’s report showing the first employment drop in four years, people are not in the mood to keep spending.
So if a Fed rate cut can’t prevent a recession, what can? Putting more money into American pockets by cutting their taxes. Yes, I know: Tax cuts have gone out of style ever since Democrats became born-again deficit hawks, and George Bush squandered the $5 trillion surplus he inherited in 2000 mainly by cutting taxes on the rich.
But with a recession looming, Democrats need to stop being the party of Herbert Hoover economics. And the Republican need to understand tax cuts for the rich won’t help because the rich don’t increase their spending when their taxes are cut. They already spend as much as they want to spend. That’s what it means to be rich.
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travis
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