Who Gets Hurt When the Dollar Slides
The dollar is now at a record low against the Euro, down more than 20 percent from its peak in 2002, down so low it’s about equal to a Canadian dollar. What difference does all this make? Roman holidays may be more costly, but how many of us are going to Rome? Canada is pricier but ... so what?
The biggest burden isn’t on American tourists. It’s on American consumers.
Put simply: When the dollar drops, imports cost more. Lumber, plywood, and natural gas from Canada. Medical devices from Germany. Machine tools from Italy. When Middle-East and Russian oil is priced in euros rather than dollars – which it surely will be as the dollar continues to slide – our energy bills will be far higher. When China seriously revalues – which it has to do as the dollar drops – every big-box retailer in America will be charging far more.
And plenty of American producers who had kept their prices down for fear of foreign competition, won’t any longer. As imports cost more, there’s less to fear.
The real worry isn’t inflation, as Wall Street thinks. It’s our pocketbooks. The bitter truth is that even as American exports do better when the dollar drops, most Americans get poorer.
Maybe we should get poorer. After all, the dollar’s tanking because we’ve been living beyond our means – borrowing some $2 billion a day from the rest of the world to go on buying from the rest of the world, and pay for some big-ticket items like a huge military. Rack up that much debt, and it’s no wonder our national IOU, called the dollar, is losing credibility.
But not all of us will get our comeuppance. Americans big enough to be able to shift their dollars into other currencies are doing just fine. That includes Wall Street investment houses, corporations with lots of cash, and the very rich.
So who gets hurt as the dollar slides? It won’t be Warren Buffet, who’s already converted more than 20 billion bucks into other currencies. It will be those of us who can’t hedge against the fall, and whose dollars are already stretched to the limit.
The biggest burden isn’t on American tourists. It’s on American consumers.
Put simply: When the dollar drops, imports cost more. Lumber, plywood, and natural gas from Canada. Medical devices from Germany. Machine tools from Italy. When Middle-East and Russian oil is priced in euros rather than dollars – which it surely will be as the dollar continues to slide – our energy bills will be far higher. When China seriously revalues – which it has to do as the dollar drops – every big-box retailer in America will be charging far more.
And plenty of American producers who had kept their prices down for fear of foreign competition, won’t any longer. As imports cost more, there’s less to fear.
The real worry isn’t inflation, as Wall Street thinks. It’s our pocketbooks. The bitter truth is that even as American exports do better when the dollar drops, most Americans get poorer.
Maybe we should get poorer. After all, the dollar’s tanking because we’ve been living beyond our means – borrowing some $2 billion a day from the rest of the world to go on buying from the rest of the world, and pay for some big-ticket items like a huge military. Rack up that much debt, and it’s no wonder our national IOU, called the dollar, is losing credibility.
But not all of us will get our comeuppance. Americans big enough to be able to shift their dollars into other currencies are doing just fine. That includes Wall Street investment houses, corporations with lots of cash, and the very rich.
So who gets hurt as the dollar slides? It won’t be Warren Buffet, who’s already converted more than 20 billion bucks into other currencies. It will be those of us who can’t hedge against the fall, and whose dollars are already stretched to the limit.
posted by Robert Reich | 3:50 PM
37 Comments:
There's the positive side to the dollar devaluation: Fewer imports, more domestic production, more exports which should mean more jobs.
Professor Reich, you are correct when say that large government deficits are big part of the problem. I'm bit perplexed though when your prior post was advocating tax cuts that would make this situation worse.
Short of government deficit reduction, I don't see what's to be done about the falling dollar. It's the predicable reaction from importing too many goods and borrowing too much money from the rest of world.
Perhaps, the Fed shouldn't be cutting interest rates. Higher real interest rates would reduce consumption and encourage domestic saving. Of course, that might create a recession...
Can someone please help me here? When Dr. Reich says that the very rich will be okay because they will shift their dollars into other currencies, how exactly will they do that? And, why can't the non-rich do that? Do you just buy international mutual funds? international bond funds? What's the mechanism?
Note: this is not a rhetorical question :)
Thank you!
The reason the non-rich can not shift their assets into other currencies because the primary asset of the non-rich is future earning power and short of moving to Canada or elsewhere, that earning power is stuck in dollars.
If your primary assets are financial assets, it's very easy these days to buy foreign assets through mutual funds.
I suppose you could start playing with currency options as hedge against your earning capacity but doing is extremely risky and unless you really know what you are doing, you are going to end up worse off.
Workers in import industries are hurt, but workers in export industries are helped.
Is it a wash?
I thought the same thing as Anaon 5:17pm - just buy international mutual funds. However, you can buy those for $2000, so I still don't see how this an instrument of the very rich. If you have only $2000 in savings, just send it to Vanguard and buy the Intl Index Fund, and you're good to go.
It seems like Dr. Reich is really saying "the financially sophisticated will be able to move their money", not solely the very rich. Is there something I am missing here?
Again, not a rhetorical question.
Thank you!
Currency trading is usually only economically viable in blocks greater than $10K. Otherwise any short-term profit will be eaten up by the middlemen currency exchangers. The average American does not have $100K+ in cash laying around to take advantage of shifting their cash into another currency.
Even most financially sophisticated individuals don't have most of their assets available in cash because they expect the dollar to drop against another currency and have it shifted into something like the loonie.
Currency fluctuations tend to be fairly low such that most of the time greater gains are found in stocks or even in less risky bonds. When you're one of the super rich, you can only buy so many stocks, bonds, and real estate. Currencies just become one of the next steps in spreading out your risk.
Although, the evident positive effects of the dollar devaluation will benefit the economy, the costs of the devaluation far exceed those benefits.
For example. The inflationary nature of the devaluation of the dollar will only increase long term rates and make our current credit crisis deeper as time goes on. While the actions of the Fed do not ripple through the economy fast enough, especially in the slow moving housing sector, for us to acurately account for the results, the looming inflation risk will only add more of an incentive for investors to factor that into their long term yields. In essence, this will aid in raising 30 year home loans, and slowing investment spending, etc...
The Case-Fisher home price index shows a bleak picture for the outcome of the housing sector and it seems that this will only lead to more foreclosures, longer inventory cycles, and less buyers willing to step up to the plate (even if they are financially able to).
I have a strong feeling that we'll see much more of this crisis, not only because many companies haven't re-evaluated their housing and credit influenced assets in this light, but because the housing market's stats are uncovered in arrears (30-60 days so).
I have faith in the Fed. As Alan Greenspan put it, there are more P.H.D.'s per square foot than in the White House. But, at the same time, my gut feels uneasy at their quick reaction to the turmoil. Maybe they were giving in to Wall Street. By the way, according to Bloomberg, 100% of short term rate affiliated securities had priced in a 25 base point rate cut before the Fed even met. 70% factored in a 50 base point cut. Do you think the Fed did this to avoid a panic?
The man on the street will hedge by buying gold from the local coin shop.
For both Prof Reich and the commenters, there are various products for retail investors that offer concentrated foreign currency exposure. Rydex mutual funds offer them, for example - I think one is called "weakening dollar" and there are also ETF's that bet on non-US currencies appreciating against the dollar. You can probably just google "currency etf" to start. I do not know anything about the performance of these investments and this is not a recommendation, just factual information that there are retail level funds out there.
I know blogs aren't academic papers but this illustrates that some research and data would really be constructive before blanket assertions are made. Many of the statements about the impact of a weakening dollar being net negative are not linked to any supporting data or analysis and certainly seem prima facie debatable to me. There may be peer-reviewed or other respected studies that prove currency devaluation hurts an economy, net-net, and if so I hope Prof Reich will link to them. That would be constructive.
Even so, to the extent that the development were to prove net negative in the near term, in part it is because the economy has become dominated by sectors where export is difficult, e.g, healthcare services, government, law, etc. and I think it is in the long run good to rebalance that.
The Case-Fisher home price index shows a bleak picture for the outcome of the housing sector and it seems that this will only lead to more foreclosures, longer inventory cycles, and less buyers willing to step up to the plate (even if they are financially able to).
Pedantic query: John, Did you mean Case-Shiller?
what you talking about willis, we've got plenty of money. We've got a spare $190 billion nobody needs for yet another year (2008) in iraq.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2007-09-26-war-funds_N.htm
Seriously though, does spending this kind of change overseas at least count as export and help the value of the dollar?
Yes, I meant S&P-Case/Shiller home price index (it was late when I wrote the article).
I don't understand this remark:
"The real worry isn’t inflation, as Wall Street thinks. It’s our pocketbooks. "
A declining dollar causes the prices of imports to rise as was explained in the posting. If prices rise then that contributes to inflation. Perhaps what was meant was that internally generated inflation won't be the major concern. This may be true since depressed wages have kept inflation lower for the past several decades.
I don't know why there is so much speculation, the pattern that the US is in has happened here and elsewhere many times before. A country overextends itself through foreign opportunism and then suffers internal economic dislocation as a result. In our case the last time isn't even that long ago. It was as a result of the Vietnam war.
Just like then the government refused to pay for the wars by raising taxes and used borrowed funds. Eventually the bill had to be paid.
It will be the same this time. Governments don't like to raise taxes, so they devalue their currency and cause inflation instead. This makes it much easier to pay off the debt.
One of my favorite stories is the letter that George Washington wrote to congress despairing how the debt incurred in the Revolutionary War would ever be paid off. The amount that he was worried about - one million dollars. Inflation took care of it.
The US has to get poorer relative to the rest of the world. As Robert Reich has hinted the pain to be felt won't be distributed equally.
Interestingly, the neo-populist theme that has popped up in the blogosphere and the political journals hasn't reached the general public. People don't seem to be feeling enough of a pinch, or are unable to make the connection between their status and the causes.
Without more popular discontent nothing much will change.
Airbus has already decided they don't like the rising euro. They've had cancelations in orders as the product is now too expensive. They are having to lay people off due to the product not being built. That doesn't necessarily translate to mean Boeing and the US benefit, since so many of the parts in planes come from overseas now. It's entirely possible that people in the US will start a barter system of sorts if our money is either hyperinflated or scarce.
If we don't have all the stuff from China being shipped over here, because it's being shipped to Europe, that's ok with me. What do we need with all this stuff over here? People living in the US, might actually figure out how to have an economy here again for us. People who shop at local farmer's markets already see this. Food isn't cheaper, but it's a greener way to buy food and it sure tastes better. Americans will have to think of a variety of creative solutions.
No so fast Mr Reich! The dollar continues to fall and prices go up. With that we all agree. However a weaker dollar is actually good for business. American manufacturers and services become more competitive vis-a-vis foreign competitors. That means more jobs for american workers, specially for the less skilled ones. So the net effect on the non rich is not so clear cut. I would be interested to hear the opinion of other fellow bloggers.
Hi Robert,
I think Obstfeld and Rogoff had predicited this some years ago. What is surprising is that if you read a comment made by Visco on their 2000 paper (
"Perspectives on OECD economic integration : implications for U.S. current account adjustment") it says that their model was far too simple. But it may prove right.
I think that a deval of the Dollar, should there occur some more, will mainly be triggered by a FED action towards devaluation. I am not sure though whether the FED can do this (they never act towards adjusting the exchange rate). Obstfeld and Rogoff said the FED would...
We will see.
You know, it always baffles me to see a professor of your stature - and a former secretary of labor, nonetheless - offer a bunch of dull observations, while skirting around the real issues.
Why don't you discuss instead WHY our federal reserve banks are NOT federal at all but PRIVATELY OWNED and why our government pays INTEREST on money loaned to us from these bankers when it could just as easily issue the money itself INTEREST-FREE?
Now, THAT would be a fruitful discussion as opposed to the tired old story of blaming Americans for "living beyond their means."
The US government spends almost one third of its budget every year on interest alone. Don't you think that money would go a long way in bringing down our so-called "debt" to the world?
Tell your students the truth.
The problem isn't just the trade deficit - it's the very structure of our monetary system.
Yeh I am considering moving some of my reserves money out of money market account and into FXE, an etf that follows the euro and pays 3.30% currently. I also put some money in international funds a few years ago, I just wish I had moved more. Or taken this step when Reich wrote a very similar article...
http://www.robertreich.org/reich/20031210.asp
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Actually, it wasn't us that borrowed the money. The money we borrowed was on credit cards. The companies we bought from were paid cash for what we bought. Now we are paying the cards back.
It was the 'bushite republicans' that have borrowed money while giving tax breaks to the rich.
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Sir
For years we have been in fear of the trade defict, not the falling $$ is providing the long awaited corection.
For years we have stared down the abyis of off-shoring, wondering how we can compeate with the 3rd world, and low the falling $$ provides some hope and maybe some jobs will not be exported.
Now the market is fikle,and a an acdemmic you can no more avoid second guessing the market at every turn, than you can fly I fullly expect that you will not see its wisdom, but really, must you also second guess your own positions as well
The $$ will help some and hurt others but its the market corection that is doing it. Strong $$ helps the import sector at the expense of local jobs, and so it has been for some time. Now it corrects, and belive it of not the market knows what it is doing even if you do not know exacly what that is.
How does China artificially keep the Yuan low yet maintain a thriving economy? this should violate some law of finance or else theres a hidden cost.
Thanks Best Regards
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If you have only $2000 in savings, just send it to Vanguard and buy the Intl Index Fund, and you're good to go.
These funds don't seem to be decoupled from the US market at all. Maybe over the long haul. But short term these funds are just mirroring the trends in the US market.
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