It's the Economy, Stupid -- But Not Just the Slowdown
According to new polls, the economy is the number 1 issue for American voters. But that's not just because the economy is slowing and mortgages are harder to come by. The real reason is middle-class families have exhausted the coping mechanisms they've used for over three decades to get by on median wages that are barely higher than they were in 1970, adjusted for inflation. Male wages today are actually lower than they were then; the income of a young man in his 30s is now 12 percent below that of a man his age three decades ago.
The first coping mechanism was moving more women into paid work. The percent of working mothers with school-age children has almost doubled since 1970 -- from 38 percent to about 70 percent. Some parents are now even doing 24-hour shifts, one on child duty while the other works. I call these families DINS - double income, no sex.
When families couldn't paddle any harder, we started paddling longer. The typical American now works two weeks more each year than 30 years ago. Compared to any other advanced nation we're veritable workaholics, putting in 350 more hours a year than the average European, more even than the notoriously industrious Japanese.
As the tide of economic necessity continued to rise, we turned to the third coping mechanism. We began taking equity out of our homes, big time. But now that home prices are sinking for the first time in decades, this final coping mechanism no longer keeps us afloat. As Moody's reported last week, defaults on home equity loans have surged to the highest level this decade.
In short, it's the economy, stupid -- but not just the current slowdown. The underlying problem began around 1970. And any presidential candidate seeking to address it will have to think bigger than stimulating the economy with tax cuts or spending increases. The fact is, most Americans are still not prospering in the high-tech, global economy that emerged three decades ago. Almost all the benefits of economic growth since then have gone to a relatively small number of people at the very top. The candidate who acknowledges this and comes up with ways to truly spread prosperity will have a good chance of winning over America's large and largely-anxious middle class.
The first coping mechanism was moving more women into paid work. The percent of working mothers with school-age children has almost doubled since 1970 -- from 38 percent to about 70 percent. Some parents are now even doing 24-hour shifts, one on child duty while the other works. I call these families DINS - double income, no sex.
When families couldn't paddle any harder, we started paddling longer. The typical American now works two weeks more each year than 30 years ago. Compared to any other advanced nation we're veritable workaholics, putting in 350 more hours a year than the average European, more even than the notoriously industrious Japanese.
As the tide of economic necessity continued to rise, we turned to the third coping mechanism. We began taking equity out of our homes, big time. But now that home prices are sinking for the first time in decades, this final coping mechanism no longer keeps us afloat. As Moody's reported last week, defaults on home equity loans have surged to the highest level this decade.
In short, it's the economy, stupid -- but not just the current slowdown. The underlying problem began around 1970. And any presidential candidate seeking to address it will have to think bigger than stimulating the economy with tax cuts or spending increases. The fact is, most Americans are still not prospering in the high-tech, global economy that emerged three decades ago. Almost all the benefits of economic growth since then have gone to a relatively small number of people at the very top. The candidate who acknowledges this and comes up with ways to truly spread prosperity will have a good chance of winning over America's large and largely-anxious middle class.
posted by Robert Reich | 2:48 PM
46 Comments:
Right on Robert. You have my vote!
You have my vote, and universal health care will make it worse. I have to pay for my health care and everyone elses. It's already to much, theres no security no matter how hard or hard fast you work : (
This post has been removed by the author.
Mr. Secretary;
Did not the Administration you serve leave escalating energy prices, a collapsing stock market and a recession to its successors? Actual statistics would seem to confirm that conclusion.
Like Citigroup with Robert Rubin, should we allow you folks to do it to us again? Or is the cliché about fooling once vs. twice more apropos the issue?
Dear Secretary Reich . . .
This is truly an excellent exposé. For quite some time I thought to write on the American desire for immediate gratification. It seemed to me the sub-prime debacle and the dot com bust resulted from this irrational, emotional exuberance. As I read your theory, I think perhaps you are correct. We are exhausted and can cope no more.
In July 2005, I penned Societal Bubbles Bursting, Job Security, Debt, Health Care, Pensions. For me, and I suspect for most others, the imminent doom was apparent. Through daily life and in articles we knew the bubble would burst. Sadly, many did not prepare, or were unable to. They were too busy, preoccupied with stress.
Weeks ago, I realized we teach our children well. The young are as overwhelmed as their parents are. In affluent areas, the student population is already obsessed with the need to succeed in the marketplace. Concerned educators hope to calm the nerves of overachievers. Some school Principals try to teach coping skills. Meditation is on the agenda. However, pupils, under extreme pressure, do not feel they can take the time to indulge in relaxation. Parents have threatened Administrators. If grades fall, if teens stop hastily preparing for professional careers, school Principals will be fired.
I invite your thoughts on . . . Less Homework Plus Yoga Equals Greater Stress?
Professor Reich, you spoke of the Presidential candidates and what they must acknowledge and propose to ensure equal prosperity. I fear while there is a candidate prepared to address the issues, he is not given the opportunity to speak. You may have read or heard a recent Bill Moyers production on the Presidential debates. Perhaps, you saw the subjective program on Cable News Network, Campaign Killers. Perchance, you may have taken the time to reflect on how, in the past, candidates actually held unscripted town hall meeting and authentically interacted with their rivals.
Today, I can only sigh as I consider . . .
Campaign Killers; Conglomerates, Candidates, Correspondents
Secretary Reich, I am certain I will continue to contemplate your notion of coping mechanisms and re-evaluate my thought that we were a little too enamored with instant consumption. As always, your wisdom stimulates my understanding. I greatly appreciate all that you share.
Betsy L. Angert
BeThink.org
Great post.
On another note, I admired your HRC post. It takes courage to tell the truth about one of your friends is acting.
Today, her campaign was bringing up Obama's kindergarden record. I can only help but wonder how cynical Obama has become through this "democratic" process you guys try to export to the rest of the world haha
aly k
To solve the underlying problem will require an effort the equivalent of sending a man to the moon. Someone will have to rally the nation. The initiative undertaken will have to be as bold as moving us off of a carbon based economy, investing in new infrastructure, and dramatically increasing research grant funding for universities and pure science projects.
It is too late-our dependency on foreign trade-our exported economy- our fractured society-the welfare state-the inverted population triangle-need I go on?
The decline in wages should be coupled with the decline in quality of goods consummed as the reason for the dilemma of the middle class. Not only are we not making comparable wages, but when we buy an automobile, a vacuum, or even a sweater, inevitably, the platic on the rear view mirrors break, a $200 replavement), the vacuum motor burns out just after a few years (buy anew one at another $200), and the aweater pills so badly you give it away. When my parents bought a car in the 1960's, it lasted 10-15 years. Any loan on the car made sense, because the car outlived the loan, not today. So, not only are wages down, but the middle class has to remain on a treadmill, becuase they are constantly having to replace items due to poor quality, and accumulating loans on stuff already sitting in our landfills. If the candidates would also talk about the decliine in quality of goods on itmes that used to last years, that would be helpful. And this has nothing to do with the obsolence of technological goods, this is the everyday stuff, appliances, cars, clothing. When will it stop?
This one struck home with me. not me specifically, but my youngest son. He ha a degree and is a 4th grade teacher. I listen to his frustration about trying to et ahead of the financial curve.
For you to obseve that my youngest son is slaving away at wages that are about the same as mine were in the 70's is just plain wrong.
So, what's the solution? That's the ponderable.
I have tremendous respect for you Mr. Rich. You seem to me to be a completely ethical person, and I am able to understand what you write about economics. Thanks.
I think the fact that incomes have not increased over time is appalling, as is the extent to which the farming of the USA treasury by the rich has reached.
However, faced with the fact of declining income, for whatever reasons, we each have options other than using our homes as ATM machines, as someone recently put it, and incurring further debt.
Consumers may choose to cut back consumption, which is too often aimed at keeping up with others. There two sides to the balance sheet, after all.
The mortgage binge, it seems, was encouraged by the bundlers and vendors of CDOs. Following the development of an apparently reliable CDO valuation model, the call went out, I imagine, from Citi, Bear Sterns, et al for more mortgages to bundle and sell, while protecting their profits by retaining the senior tranches.
Consequently, mortgages sales offices proliferated, and mortgages were peddled to lots of folks who even the loan originator knew could not repay. There were others who took advance of 0 down loans to buy houses, refinanced as the value rose to obtain consumer cash, and then walked away.
Consumers have responsibilities to inform themselves. When they don't, it is not the role of government to indemnify them.
While agree with you in that redistribution would be a good thing, I don't think a candidate who proposes ways to truly redistribute wealth downward has a chance to be elected President. The people and corporations who sponsor successful candidates don't want it, and a VERY large portion of the US population has been conditioned to react disfavorably to redistribution schemes.
I think that a Party and President who could acheive some redistribution of wealth would have the long-lasting gratitude of a large portion of the American public. Getting such a person (and their policy ideas) into a position of strength to make this happen seems rather impossible.
FYI on inequality:
link:
http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/742
Excerpt:
"this suggests that the causes of rising inequality are primarily structural and related to new technology rather than to trade or institutions. Thus greater trade protectionism or the re-energising of unions may do relatively little to reverse the increase in inequality."
The changes in the bankruptcy laws have arguably undermined one of the important relief valves for those in financial distress. Any neuroscientists out there are free to dispute this assertion: one might credibly posit that many American workers/consumers are behaving as if they are proverbial deer in the headlights. Yanking away the hope of an improvement of one's lot is a recipe societal malaise of wide-reaching impact. There are lots of citizens just walking away from their houses.
Quick note to say I agree completely with what you state. I disagree completely with the last sentence: what will matter most, as it has since the Reagan elections, is how Roger Ailes and his image management machine lead Americans by the nose: the red, white, and blue television commercials, the Republican tax cuts (which everyone, I hope, can see, do not help create jobs in the United States because India and China are much too large for Republican tax cuts). Even right wing rag Investor Business Daily yesterday stated Big Pharma companies are expanding in China because one US scientist can be replaced, for the same salary, by 10 Chinese scientists, and there is no way Republican tax cuts can intervene. The evangelical Christian cant. Fear-mongering.
Of course, I hope I'm wrong about Roger Ailes, but I read his book, "You Are the Message." I recommend everyone find an inexpensive used copy or check out a copy from a library.
As for bankruptcy, when the recent legislation was before Congress, both Republican North Carolina senators, Elizabeth Dole and Richard Burr, voted in favor of the banks at the same time North Carolina was losing jobs: textiles, furniture manufacturing, and software technology jobs, Research Triangle Park. At least Dem governor Mike Easeley gets out of his office, goes to sites, and gets the fired workers help for enrolling in alternative courses in health sciences and biotech. I suspect North Carolina state income tax revenues have dropped enough for someone to notice.
Excellent post. When a country looses it's middle class it becomes inherently unstable.
Maybe it's easier to use Rome's paradigm of "Bread and Circuses" and stop trying so damn hard to tread water.
Sir
You are too well educated to belive the the ecomony is under the control of the government. In fact the infuence of the US goverment on the US economy via Monetary or fiscal policy is ebbing.
Why? becuse the world is now an integrated economy. While I do not know your views on the fleguently raised canard of world govenment-- it is now clear that economic integration has weakend economic sovereignty quite a bit.
I claim that wages are falling in real terms due to global wage competion which can not be abated-- meanwhile living standards are up worldwide, but not fast enough to close the gap with the US without some fall in the US.
I further claim that there is hyper inflation in heath care and eduction-- two areas of the economy which, interestingly are not part of a free market ( both are subisdised and involve 3rd party payers which break the price/ demand feedback loop) -- this may in be coincidence but I am not buying it,and I suspect that neither are you.
The free market is, was, and always will be the only price control method which works.
God help us all if we forget that.
Mgrund,
This isn't a free market, and hasn't been for many decades. Like most of the first world nations, it is a mixed economy.
Unfortunately, we're attempting to place socialistic band-aids over hemorrhaging neck wounds.
Capitalism is unsustainable, unrestrained capitalism doubly so.
Frankly, we're all beholden to the rich whose companies pay for lobbiests and whose accountants squirrel away their money, not some shadowy world government.
Brian : YOu must first :
Define free market
Define mixed economy
Define market forces.
Then you will discover that mixed economy is a term used my persons who do not understand what is meant by free market.
It does not mean no regulations as the existance of contract law makes clear.
I menas that price is set by voluntarty particpation of buyers and sellers whose interests are coutrer to each other-- this sets up a self correting mechanism using price, or more precisly change in price, as a means of signaling supply/demand inbalance which then encorages the particpates to adjust the demand or supply as there self interest dicates.
I do not in gerneral object to price nuetral regulations which do not interfere with the price signals, or the voluntary particpation, or shif the balance of informaion or power.
I do sometimes belive that what appears to be price neutral, and is claimed as such by its proponents, does in fact have market distorting effects. Case in point the current morgage mess which did result in part due to fed policy, as well as the issue of tax deductable interest,as well as the desimation of rental housing ever since rent control.
In any case, Mixed economy is a meaningless term unless you at least ask the question-- is this a job for markets or government? You will find that market to much better when they are not distorted-- make this the goal --let no govenment policy distort the market and I, and many others will be quite happy, and the number of times you will need to use govenment intervention will go way down.
Mr. Secretary,
Try using more hyperlinks to connect to these statistics. Some of the claims you're making here come across as being dubious
"The underlying problem began around 1970. "
That would be right around the time real money was abolished from the earth, right? When Richard Nixon, with a penstroke designed to get him re-elected, took the dollar off the gold standard, and, in effect, took everyone else (who are all pegged to the dollar) off it too?
First country to peg to gold becomes the world's reserve currency.
Aktaion said...
"The underlying problem began around 1970. "
Yes that is correct
Everyone that has studied it has shown that upward mobility actually slowed considerably around 1970
is it a coincidence that right around that time was when the Ivy Leage elites (both the democratic and republican elites) invited the unskilled and poor of the world to move to the USA through the immigration act?
This decision was a disaster for the poor of the USA, and for the unskilled workers of the USA.
Of course it massively benefitted the cognitive elite (both the democratic and the republican kind)
I mean, a country has a limited ammt of money to spend on the poor. If the country imports millions of poor people, the number of poor people grows and the money available to help the poor is divided among more and more people.
There are all sorts of powerful groups that try to persuade poor people to move to the USA. These poor people move to the USA. The limited budget available to help the poor is split among a greater and greater number of poor people and as a results, the public services given to the poor, the quality of their free medical care, the quality of the schools they send their kids to, all of that goes down
It is just obvious to me that anyone who wants to help the quality of life of the poor people now living in the USA should be in favor of zero immigration of people who will move to the USA and wind up poor.
If your loyalty is to the american citizens who are poor and dependent on government help, then it is obvious that you should be against all unskilled immigration since a high percentage of unskilled immigrants wind up poor, and this poverty persists in to the second generation
Now, let's say that your loyalty is to the unskilled working citizens of the USA. Let's say you don't care about the people that live on government help - you just care about the kid who academically couldn't make it through high school that had to drop out and work at McDonalds. Well, immigration of the unskilled hurts the unskilled US workers by driving down wages.
So immigration of unskilled people hurts the group of american citizens that relies on government help and is not employed AND it also hurts the group of american citizens that has no skills - the people that are employed in low end unskilled jobs.
If you care about the most vulnerable members of American society, you should be against immigration of the unskilled.
Again i say, let's bring in people of all races, people of all cultures who will arrive in America and immediately start making tons of money and paying high taxes. Use the tax dollars to support programs that help the poor folks living in the USA.
I can fully understand why greedy rich folks want to amnesty all the undocumented. Especially in Phoenix right now, greedy rich folks need to pay more and more money to their housekeepers, gardeners and nannies now that the new law has reduced the supply.
But why the heck is Robert Reich on the side of the greedy rich folks that want to amnesty all the undocumented now in the USA? Can't he see what a gift to the rich and a disaster for poor american citizens this would be?
Again, Robert, I have to ask, whose side are you on?
Oh look, Ron Paul's trolls just showed up...
As respects those who question the backing of the dollar: The dollar is backed by oil.
As far as the anti-immigration pseudoracist screed is concerned... where are all of these poor immigrants? Near as I can tell, they support themselves just fine. Until Bush had the bright idea of messing up immigration, we were importing the most skilled students from all over the world. Now, we're training the best and brightest and refusing to allow them to stay.
Not many folk with Ph.D's on the dole...
That is a crazy statement.
The elites of both parties are responsible for unskilled immigration.
Of course let's bring in millions of highly skilled immigrants of all colors and all religions. Let's have all of the USA be like Palo Alto, with smart hard working people of all races creating wealth.
But the bipartisan policy of inviting in the unskilled workers of the world is crazy.
Ron Paul is a joke. So is the rest of the anti immigration crowd. Racist morons all of them.
But what is good for progressives in the USA is plenty of high skilled immigration and zero unskilled immigration.
Plenty of blacks and latinos who hold unskilled jobs are seeing their wages pushed down by Reich's policy of flooding the USA with unskilled workers.
Perhaps that is why Reich's support among blacks and latinos is so low -
The core of Reich's support is among educated elite people, not among the hardworking folks of all races that toil away at unskilled jobs, with their wages relentlessly driven down by the Reich policy of bringing in unskilled immigrants
Robert you are truly wise. You wrote about this landscape many years ago in the Future of Success. As I sit and ponder 2008, I'm examining the issue of personal choice. Do I continue to work hard to compete in a world driven by global high-tech capitalism or do I dedicate my life to solving the problems of the world that really matter to me? Choices.... Please continue to write. You have profound insights.
A new political party will emerge, it will endorse capitalism (like the Republicans), and encourage economic government regulation (like the Democrats).
A new political party will emerge, it will endorse capitalism (like the Republicans), and encourage economic government regulation (like the Democrats).
Tim, what makes you think the Democratic Party doesn't already endorse Capitalism?
Both Parties are the business party.
For example, see the Blue Dogs, Democratic Leadership Coucnil (Clintonian 'Centrists'), etc.
Progressives are only a plurality, and are often encouraged by party leadership to compromise their principles for the purposes of party cohesion.
Yes,
and it is even worse.
Most of the so called progressives endorse massive unskilled immigration, even though it increases income inequality and lowers wages of all unskilled workers.
So progressives are really ethnic / social progressives, not ECONOMIC progressives in the mold of Caesar Chavez or Sam Gompers
Taken as a whole, yes indeed to both of you (another post may sneak in but there were two when I wrote this).
Hillary has been the only centrist in this race, and I hope the lessons of the '06 elections will continue grow the centrist contingent back the 25% level of the early 70's. That's not the only retrograde aspect that I might be rooting for.
Hillary Clinton
Amy Klobuchar '08 and '12
I think that HRC would be better served if she compared and contrasted her presidency to the one we have currently. How will Washington be different if she becomes the new commander and chief?
The old saw "the rich man goes to college, the poor man goes to work" is ever thus, whatever labels you want to put on it, as a rising tide of inflation sinks all workers, and bouys all investors. The "spread" is growing between the have's and the have more's. Passive investors are literally starving workers on a global pandemic scale.
e.g.At least $25 of every barrel of oil is passive futures speculation.
1. Outlaw personal investment in commodity futures, except for those who actually make or take delivery, the producers and the processors. Everyone else is out of the pool.
No administrative oversight would be required of the CBOT, other than initial limited-entry registration.
Limited Entry Commodities Act of 2007
"It shall be a forfeitable gross misdemeanor for a passive investor to buy or sale shares, options or futures in the commodities which preserve the American way of life. Only producers and processors of commodities, duly registered, may trade commodities, trade only in those commodities they produce or process, and only in proportion as they produce or process them. These limited-entry trade registrations may not be bought or sold, and will sunset whenever that producer or processor changes their business."
2. A 25-mil investment transaction tax. Every trade, no matter how small, has a CUSIP, and comes with a transaction fee from the broker, with the ability by that broker to automatically deduct Federal fees, in this case, a day-trader, hedge fund transaction disincentive tax.
Investment Transaction Tax Act of 2007
"Be it enacted, that a 25-mil Federal fee be deducted from every market transaction as a percentage of the amount of that transaction. The monies so collected from this transaction tax may be used solely to pay down the Federal deficit."
3. Capital gains on hedge funds. Duhh. Passive money chasing hot alpha is destroying the planet, in a snake-eating-its-own-tail meme.
Investment Capital Gains Tax Act of 2007
"Be it enacted, that a ... etc."
Problem solved, without any changes to US income tax law, and without hiring a single additional Federal employee, thank you very much!
The only thing Americans are more concerned about than the economy is the unprecedented, vast growth in Federal government employment.
anonymous:
I like your tax ideas. Good thinking!
Will you address the myth of increasing productivity, Secretary Reich?
eyesonthestreet's comment about the quality of supposed "durable goods" is very well-taken. As engineering has become more advanced, it has been used to ratchet goods down to the lowest possible tolerances (cheapest inputs), resulting in diminsished durability.
However, s/he misses the most important item in his/her list: homes. For most middle class families, the equity in their home is the primary wealth they might have to pass along to their children. What a shame that much housing (also commercial buildings, but that's another story) are built only to last about as long as the mortgage does.
Inexorably, an elite allowed to continue to aggregate wealth looks for a servant or peon class to squeeze.... ever since the Romans and the Plebes, right up to the maquiladoras of today, the rich get richer by squeezing more from their workers. Unless government intervenes... Lincoln! calling Lincoln!
I love your blog; I love hearing you speak. Rather than celebrate the season listening to Christmas music, I read some of your articles and blogs. It was just the thing to help me feel a little less despairing about the state of the world. You represent sanity, reason, compassionate pragmatism, and hope when you talk about tax policy. Even if much the culture has become so corrupt that a lot of us are quite reasonably hopeless about our own situations, it cheers me to think that you will still be out there teaching and speaking reason.
If we stopped relying on the pharmaceutical companies to provide 80% of medical research conducted in this country and marketing it to physicians through medical journals, constant advertising, and direct-to-physician campaigns, and if we stopped relying on the insurers to decide that primary care providers must see upwards of 40 patients a day, so that the job of the physician is to write insanely expensive (and dangerous) prescriptions to patients they don't have time to properly diagnose--we might actually begin to get a handle on medical care costs before they bankrupt us. None of the candidates seem willing to address how terrifying the healthcare industry has become at the hands of the corporate bureaucracies. If the care wasn't so bizarrely inefficient, we might be able to cover the uninsured?
Thanks for the blogs.
Thanks Best Regards
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