Prediction
The nominees for president in 2008 will be John McCain and Barack Obama. I can’t, as yet, see far enough into the future to know which of them will win. I'll report back just as soon as I do.
posted by Robert Reich | 4:24 PM
46 Comments:
I liked that! But I hope Obama wins; earlier today I got the feeling that Mccain might end up choosing Leiberman as his deputy.
As usual many thanks to Robert for giving it to Kudlow again today. Supply Side economics should be more acurately called "Marcosian" economics. After all, it's real agenda is to systematically and permanently remove the burden of taxation from the wealthy.
Geez, and you're also going to leave us hanging as to your reasons for believing so.
I hope you're right about the nomination of Obama. Unless things changed substantially between now and election day, I think the democrats could run Sparky the Fire Dog and win.
After last night´s showing, I agree with Obama.
While I would like to see the GOP select McCain, I don´t think they will. There is far too much rhetoric from the ANTIs regarding illegal immigration. The ANTIs hate McCain. They constantly denigrate him on their websites. There is far too much animosity within their ranks for him to be their candidate.
My guess (and it is a guess) is they will select Guliani or a wild card like Jeb Bush. (I would´t put it past W in finding a way to get his brother selected.)
Hi Robert, Just added your blog to my new feed reader. Keep up the great work. Your a great antidote for anti Americanism.
I think your right about Obama. The guy has a shot at greatness which is more than most people get. Lets hope he fulfils his potential.
I think Huckabee could end up with the Republican nomination even if he doesn't know where Pakistan is and has called the anti-tax Club for Growth the Club for Greed. He is very likable on camera without the grating-in-your-face folksiness of Bush. I think McCain is way too old to appeal to younger voters and the evangelicals really don't trust him.
If Huckabee did go the distance I would love to see Grover Norquist eating squirrel at the Presidential Inauguration banquet.
We think you've got it right this time. As a couple of Sixties types who have waited a generation for new leadership, we're hopeful again. And now, as usual, the politicians and political institutions get to catch up with the rest of us, who have already moved on. Not just in terms of technology and vision, but the Race Issue, too. When will the traditional media quit calling it a race race? quit referring to Obama as "African American" when its only old fogies who think of him that way anymore.
Bravo for the blog and keeping on thinking things thru.
G 1 L
I must warn all the HAPPY(::) faces here, congratulating themselves for their candidates being anything new to US(A).
No doubt, your candidate is bought and payed for by the same people that gave you last 20 years and for you to hope that he/she will give you anything different you are either fool or fooling yourself.
Do not be so happy for this not being the RACE issue. It is a long time this is not a race issue. Cause SOPITALISTS have turned us into one race - RAT RACE. For a long time now the only color in the RAT RACE that counts is GREEN. Those that have more if it are racing the others like RATS...
I am amazed what makes some of these people so happy. No wonder they will never udnerstand why the world is wating for a change, cause it can not come in usual ways... Cause nobody is discussing the way it should come. The people here and everywhere seem to assume, that changing peronalities will change the ways of US(A).
Keep Dreaming... Nothing changes until the $US Dollar is taken from the hands of FEDeral reserve and politicians. And that can only happen by indroducing the HONEST money that can not be faked and stolen in "bribed" transactions such as "BRIDGES NOWHERE"...
Good Trading
Robert said....
"The nominees for president in 2008will be John McCain and Barack Obama".
Well let's hope Obama does indeed drive a stake through the Clintons heart once and for all. Billary is repulsive and Bill is pathologically narcissistic. The dems can do better than them.
Being a socialist, I would prefer to see two near-populists get nominated; Edwards and Huckabee. Edwards is despised by the DNC corporate machine and doesn't have a chance and Huckabee is quickly getting there with the gop establishment by his populist rumblings. But Huckabee is new enough and might avoid their all out wrath. He's got a good chance but how will he handle the money thing? Wall Street will come calling if they see he can survive and will want to cut a deal. Will he make deals to compete financially?
I believe out of all the candidates he would care most about our poorest Americans. This is where we have to start. Many things about Huckabee are unacceptable but his conscience and concern for the most needy appears firm. The others will care about the middle-class but you never hear anyone but Huckabee and Edwards even mention the most disenfranchised.
Dr. Reich:
Really going out on a limb with your McCain forecast. I would agree it is a strong possibility simply because the rest of the Reps field is so lame.
Though I feel Huckabee is a flash in the pan, he does scare me. We don't need a religious nut back in the White House again. He is now focusing on his tax policy in NH and if he stays on that line he will eventually shoot himself in the foot. As more and more folks here about his idea and think, hopefully, they will realize his idea is pure folly.
Obama's chances improved significantly with the Iowa win but he still has a lot of states to meander yet. This new condensed primary schedule may prove less a boon and more of a degrading of the process for all the candidates.
Is interesting the apparent truth in the premise that victories in one state can have a strong influence in the next state. In theory these are all mutually exclusive events and should not have any connectedness - notwithstanding a general consensus for one candidate over another - yet we seem to see the conventional wisdom repeated over and over again. Would guess it's either the impact of the media in furthering the algorithm or perhaps our great American tradition of always wanting to back the eventual winner, rendering analysis less important than following the leader.
Dear Dr. Reich,
I read somewhere that you were the first to introduce Bill to Hillary, before their encounter in the Yale library. You are such an "insider," and so savvy about these things. Your opinion about the campaign is hugely important.
when I blink, I see Obama as a sort-of JFK figure, full of hope, inspiration, youth, and promise. I see Bill as sort of an Eisenhower figure, with a prosperous and happy past, America was on top, etc. etc. (OK, there's a lot hiding in that "etc." But, anyway.) So who was Eisenhower's #2, who ran against JFK...oh, right...a very experienced, very smart and ambitious, not entirely trusted or loved figure...er, um, well. You see where I'm going here. We know what happened.
Please, where are the fallacies in my unsettling reverie? Thank you.
I dealt from the bottom and got Giuliani.
Not only are Obama, Kucinich and Edwards the progressive candidates, but the odds are, the progressive candidates lose more often than they win.
-centrist voter since 1980
Dr. Reich,
Your prediction--sadly but wisely provided without speculative reasoning--seems entirely reasonable from a post-debate perspective. We'll hold you to it. :-)
You are right on the money, sir, they will be the nominees. I am a democrat, but I have to say that if I had to choose a president between Obama and McCain, I will choose McCain. We need someone responsible, smart and with experience to end this conflict (mess) in Iraq. Just wish that the nation would mature and choose an honest man--McCain!
Thanks Best Regards
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Thanks Best Regards
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it doesn't really matter who is the Democratic nominee. The Republicans behind the scenes aren't going to allow any of the current crop of obvious losers to be their candidate. I think the dark horse will be Newt Gingrich.
Maybe the dems should nominate Dennis Kucinich. He must be on to something with his 6 foot red-headed wife who's some 30+ years younger than him. He pinches himself every morning when he wakes up to be sure it's all real:
cure hahaha
nobody'schild:
Given the possibility that there will be no clear, majority winner on the Reps side, it is possible a knight in shining armor might come roaring in; Newt would certainly be a strong contender for that role.
Though a very bright guy, I'm not sure that Newt, with baggage of his own, does a whole lot for the hopes of the Reps in the general election. When he talks in moderate terms and when he analyzes the failings of the current election process he makes great sense. On the other hand, when he panders to the conservative right he segues to just another sound bite spewing, nonsensical right wing nut, espousing mostly the status quo.
Very interesting. But the Feds job is to maintain the economy, not to be political. Robert, you should have commented on the fact that by not tightening the money supply Greenspan allowed both the internet bubble and the subprime mortgage bubble to burst on his watch. Two bubbles for Greenspan! He gets an "F" in economics. His theory that we were in a "New economy" is a bust.
Greenspan will be remembered for the two 1929-like bubbles that occurred on his watch, neither of which he managed well.
First we saw the internet bubble, now we have disrupted financial markets and huge volatility. The Fed could have tempered the internet bubble. They also should have realized that subprime mortgages and ARMs were trouble and would wreak havoc in both the financial and housing markets.
The damage to the financials, the home owners, and the current volatility are all the result of Greenspan's inaction and are the aftershocks of the Greenspan era.
Hopefully the Fed will now get out of politics, talk plainly, and do a better job.
michael from Los Altos
michael
Tomorrow after the N.H. primary:
Obama: madonna
Clinton:boc
lol
McCain is a bit to old to get the younger voters attention which seems to be breaking though in the primarys.
Robert can you please comment on Krugmen's Op-Ed today? I would really like to hear what you have to say about it.
Thanks
Sir! How nice to find you in the blogosphere! I google your name to confirm the dates of your service with the Clinton cabinet (in my comment I tried to quote you on "patient capital"; for years I've tried to find that in text but have always failed.) ... and here you are!
I look forward to reading you regularly. (An increasing number of folk swear by google.reader ... I find it "too much of a good thing"; if you haven't tried NetVibes.com I recommend it to you, highly.)
with respect
--bentrem
Well Robert, since I heard you with my very own ears predict a Kerry victory over Bush in 2004 I will have to discount this one. How about a prediction as to the number of US workers in unions by 2016?
Predictions are meant to be just that, saying ahead of time. Saying is not knowing. We all predict weather and stocks and lotto numbers and are often wrong. But it does not make predictions less intersting. So I'm glad my man Barak is getting the attention he deserves. Now he has to convert vision to action. toughie that one!
Mark Thoma's blog Economist's View, Paul Krugman and Robert Reich and my day is complete! My friends ask.. where did you get that? And I say (faking modesty) I read it on ----- (enter Krugman, Reich or Economist's View).
Gotta tell ya professor, you were one of the few Clinton cabinet members I actually liked.
We have a chance to learn whether special interest money can boost another Republican candidate into the White House; in addition, we can possibly see whether the voting machines are rigged. Over the weekend, both NYT and WaPo ran articles about voting machines unreliability.
During either the 2000 or 2004 campaigns, during January of one of those election years, the editor of The Economist 'zine, Bill Emmot, IIRC, was interviewed on PBS. He stated that at no time in US history had a presidential candidate ever run behind in the polls throughout the summer then won the November election. You can research the factoid at your leisure.
Ron Paul please =(
The democratic nominee will win if he is strongly in favor of enforcing employer sanctions on the employers that hire illegals.
that is the issue that resonates with the swing voters
If the nominee doesn't take this position, those swing voters will be lost
Grillman and Luna, especially good comment. How can real racial assimilation and reconilliation ever occur if race is intruded as the domninant feature of every story in which a black person is featured.
Obama is wrong on so many policy issues, including most of the big ones, but he seems like a very decent man who intends to do right as he sees it.
The first black President is a big issue, but the larger point is the lack of barriers to that milestone rather than an obsession with the historic barriers.
Barack is black, Edwards is pretty and Hillary is stout. Now what on God's earth do any of those phsyical characteristics have to do with their capacity to do the hardest freakin job in the world.
Bob:
Don't be coy; who are you supporting?
I see that John Kerry just endorsed Barack. That is whom I have been working for.
Thanks for your blog -- lots of good sense!
Dr. Reich,
Given your apparent distates for Hillary's candidacy, how would you feel about an Obama-Clinton ticket?
Curiously yours,
Buck
the real sporer:
Do agree with you that the constant mention of Obama being black is senseless. It's almost as if the media are afraid that someone will accuse them of not knowing he's black.
Unfortunately, grillman and luna are a little off in that it's not just old fogies who care if a candidate is black. Though we have come a long way there are still remnants, young and old, out there who harbor tinges of racism. To them, a black president would be anathema.
In a larger sense, if he were to win the general election, it would be unbelievable the motivational impact it would have on so many black folks. Self worth and educational ambitions could surge ahead in geometric numbers. Even the fact that he is a viable, mainstream candidate, as opposed to the fringe nature of previous black candidates, will have some favorable impact on standards and desires within the black community and could bleed over to other ethnic groups as well.
I am of the opinion that he was also aware of the risks inherent in his being a black candidate. While seemingly conciliatory in nature, his avoidance early on of harsh rhetoric, as opposed to say, John Edwards, in hindsight appears to me to have been calculated to establish his bona fides before he embarked on an angrier campaign. Once the populace got to know him and develop some acceptance of his competence and veracity, they were much less likely to recoil from his stronger language toward lobbyists and corporations.
Even among many who have overcome racist tendencies, the perception of "uppity" might have turned them off.
It is unfortunate the many physical aspects that enter into the minds of voters in this country.
"PREDICTION": The nominees for president in 2008 will be John McCain and Hillary Clinton. You go girl!!
M&M
Hey libs-come on over to therealsporer.blogspot.com and offer your thoughts on our Republican debate.
I'm interested in your spontaneous.
And if you're wrong?
Mccain would be one of my lesser if not my last choice as a republican candidate. He seems to be holding a strong presence so far, however, I could not disagree more with some of his policies. He quotes, "It is our moral obligation to spread democracy." Judging by his view on Iraq, it sounds like he wants to spread democracy with force.
I'm suprised that nobody has really mentioned anything about Ron Paul on this blog. He has earned my vote.
I would normally vote democrat but I feel that most of the democratic candidates(and republican), aside from kucinich and paul, don't fully understand the peril our economy faces today.
I'm tired of hearing about useless stimulus packages. The only way to face this challenge is to realize that America has been living way way past its means for decades. We simply cannot afford to have troops stationed in over 130 different countries. Not only will this relieve a significant amount of stress on our economy, it will also strengthen our national security.
I hope you're right, Bob!
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I liked that! But I hope Obama wins; earlier today I got the feeling that Mccain might end up choosing Leiberman as his deputy.
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