Krugman Still Has it Wrong on Obama's and Hillary Clinton's Health Care Plans
I don't command any space on the New York Times oped page, but for those of you want to know the truth about the health-care plans of Obama and Clinton -- rather than the rather lopsided arguments Paul Krugman keeps making in his column on that page, as he did again today -- please see my blog (below) for January 13, 2008,
"Democrats Should Stop Squabbling Over Healthcare Mandates."
"Democrats Should Stop Squabbling Over Healthcare Mandates."
posted by Robert Reich | 10:43 AM
23 Comments:
Yes, I was puzzled by Paul Krugman's article and how exactly he came up the figures of 23 million covered under Obama versus 45 million under Mrs. Clinton. I usually really like him. Is this just a partisan attempt at deception on his part?
I am a fairly recent convert to Obama preferring the angry populism of Edwards so this article gave me pause. I can't happily vote for Hillary because given her great intelligence, superlative education and 8 years in the White House, I don't believe she was duped into authorizing the evil Bush to declare war on Iraq. She had to know exactly what would happen (as I did) and so is complicit in the death and destruction of thousands and the ruin of Iraq.
Anyway, Professor Reich, thank you for allaying my uncertainties. You are probably my favorite political writer because you are unfailingly clear, honest and concise.
Here's how he came up with it: Jonathan Gruber's study is available for $5 in pdf form.
http://www.nber.org/papers/w13758
I've read it. It's about 70 pages long, including tables and endnotes. Here's why Gruber's model came up with 23 million covered under a non-mandatory plan:
"This policy would increase the number of newly insured by 23 million, slightly less than half of the total stock of uninsured, despite these very generous subsidies and comprehensive reform.
This reflects the fact that many uninsured are uninterested in obtaining coverage even at very
high subsidy rates. Although this is clearly an out of sample prediction, this result is consistent
with the large number of uninsured who are eligible for free public insurance but do enroll as
well as the large number of uninsured who are eligible for highly subsidized employer-provided
insurance but do not enroll. Universal access does not lead to anywhere near universal coverage."
I think Reich's Jan 13 post is pushing some BS here about mandates not working, because the study he cites is for a country that had 98% coverage before the mandate was adopted. We have 47 million uninsured, like 15% of the country. If our government mandates coverage, then insurance companies must offer these 47 million people something.
I agree with Prof. Reich that this is really a pointless squabble. The fact is that either Obama's or Clinton's plan (or Edwards' for that matter) is far better than what we have now. And it's pretty pointless to debate the finer points of similar plans proposed by candidates on the campaign trail. The only plan that really matters is the one that will be voted on by Congress - no doubt after a lot of arm-twisting, compromising and cajoling.
So the real question, to me, is which candidate is more likely to succeed in getting a good plan through Congress? I think that would be Obama, particularly considering Clinton's past history on this issue, which will likely work against her.
Dr, Reich:
Thank you, joel patterson!
I, too, was going to suggest that Robert was being somewhat disingenuous in his haranguing about Krugman, since anyone reading his column would know that, although he subscribes to the theory, he was quoting and/or referencing his data from another source, a seemingly reliable one.
Dr. Reich:
I realize that professors do not suffer intellectual opposition lightly but it might be time to bury your political emotions and look at the issue objectively.
I doubt even you will argue that eventually costs and equity will dictate mandate legislation. Given that, then it certainly will be easier to accomplish mandates in the original, apt to be contentious, legislation, rather than trying to come back with a standalone mandate bill.
Mandates viewed exclusively will appear far more punitive than if embodied in a comprehensive plan.
marcuswan:
Just so you're aware, Krugman believes that Edwards is responsible for Obama even having a plan. He also asserts that Hillary's plan is essentially the same as Edwards.
Two more rebuttals of Paul Krugman's analysis, also by respected liberal commentators, are recently published online - one by Robert Kuttner here: www.prospect.org/ cs/articles?article=a_health_law_with_holes
and another by Dean Baker here: http://www.prospect.org/ csnc/blogs/beat_the_press
Bottom line: it's unfair to mandate coverage when the insurance/HMO driven health care system so poorly serves the needs of the insured. Fix the system first, obviously a huge task in itself, before mandating participation in a broken system. (Hillary's "we'll go after their wages" comment was painful to hear - a perfect foible for the Reeps).
I believe the two professors should appear jointly on the PBS News Hour to hash this out.
http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=the_lessons_of_94
Ezra Klein's piece on the lessons of 94 is worth your time.
Hillary has had legislative success with Congress. As First Lady, in the late 90s, she led the effort to pass SCHIP to get lower income children health coverage. This is an indicator she learned from 94.
costs are a different problem from coverage.
covering everyone creates more political will to con tain costs
Whatever happened to universal health care? Get rid of the worthless insurance companies whose primary concern is their bottom line and whose executive pay is over the top. We could extend medicare for all - expand the risk pool and greatly lower the administrative costs or we could open up the excellent system offered to Federal employees. I am retired from the Federal government and when I go to sleep each night and wake up each morning, I intone a prayer to all dieties who may be listening: Thank you for my health insurance!!!
The part of the mandate question that dictates its fairness is not the private insurance companies but the offering of public health insurance that directly competes with the private health insurance. That takes robp's comment out of the argument. Also, it is a necessary step towards fixing the "system", since right now our problem is we don't have A system, we have a bunch of systems with competing goals (i.e, take care of people vs make money.)
The beauty of forcing the private health insurers to compete with the government ones is that it will prove, assuming the program is well run, that government can handle this more efficiently than private industry can. Which is, if correct, the end state that we're all assuming we want anyway.
Finally, if you can accept the above (which I imagine most of you will have trouble with), then mandates are ESSENTIAL to spread the risk out as much as possible, which will contribute significantly to lowering costs for both public and private sector insurance.
Professor Reich:
You were given the last word in the NY Times Magazine's interesting story today:
“The American public doesn’t particularly like establishments, especially when the country appears to be off track,” said Robert B. Reich, secretary of labor in the Clinton administration and now a professor of public policy at the University of California, Berkeley. “I think we may be witnessing something of a revolt against the establishment in both parties.”
So -- there must be some way you can get on the Op-Ed page! Please make the call.
Obama's plan is almost exactly the same as Edwards without the individual mandate. The difference without and with the mandate is the difference between getting to 95% coverage and 98.5% coverage.
Krugman is being highly misleading in saying a study by John Gruber suggests that a plan without mandates "broadly similar to the Obama plan" would only cover 23 million compared to 45 million for a plan with mandates. The plan in the study is simply not that similar to Obama's plan, which both includes employer mandates and mandates coverage for children.
Other studies, including one by Gruber, have found that it is possible to get 80% of the uninsured covered without an individual mandate.
Other independent analysts and fact checkers have looked at the best current research and come to conclusions similar to Robert Reich's.
factcheck.org
"A Gruber study from 2006 estimates that a plan with generous subsidies and an employer mandate would lead to 82 percent of the uninsured gaining coverage, based on 2001 data. Applied to today's figures, that would leave about 8.5 million without insurance. Gruber found that a proposal that included an individual mandate would lead to 100 percent coverage of the uninsured.
Other studies also find only a small discrepancy between the types of plans that Obama and Clinton are proposing. For instance, a 2003 Commonwealth Fund study found that a plan with mixed private-public options (as the leading Democratic candidates have put forth) that also included an individual mandate would reach near universal coverage, leaving just 1 percent of people uninsured. Not including a mandate would still reach most of the uninsured, leaving about 3 percent without coverage."
Washington Post
Washington Post
And an interesting quote from Gruber himself in that last link:
'"She's the candidate with the most expertise, but she's also the candidate with the most negative history," said Jonathan Gruber, a health-care expert and professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who talked to all three leading Democratic campaigns about their plans. "Will the public be more swayed by her experience or her bad history?"'
Having read the "10 myths of Canadian health care" article*, my NUMBER ONE reason for supporting single-payer health care is now:
"One unsurprising side effect of [not struggling with 100 insurers] is that the doctors [in Canada are] more up-to-date in their specialties."
In any doctor level profession -- maybe even with bloggers -- you can spend half your life keeping up with what's new. American doctors dealing with 100 sets of rules and fighting 100 sets of care deniers, cannot keep up with their specialties they way they really want to...
...what can you, mandated policy supporters, ever say again in favor of your position -- except maybe craven fear of insurance company lobbying? Just add under training to over charging and your plea for single payer should have no trouble selling itself (Medicare for All) ever again.
*http://www.ourfuture.org/blog-entry/
mythbusting-canadian-health-care-part-i
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Mr. Reich, I have followed you for too many years to number and like what you have done for this country but now it seems you can not say you are mistaken; where is your courage? Mrs. Clinton's program WILL cover more in need of health care, you were wrong when you spoke to Mr. Obama's Health Plan as stronger in it's coverage for all Americans. You can not doubt this and a quick look at FactCheck.org brings it all in prospective. Do the right thing.
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Obama’s efforts to connect to the Republican Party, specifically Bush, and Dick Chaney, of the Halliburton Company, dates back to the Presidents Grandfather, Prescott Bush, and indeed Chaney was once an executive officer of Halliburton.
The American military pounds Iraq with Artillary, bombs, and the like, destroying large sections of cities, and infra-structures, then Halliburton comes in to rebuild. Halliburton and Halliburton associated companies have raked in ten’s of billions.
Obama is just like the BIG HALIBURTAN. Haliburton has contracted to build detention centers in the U.S. similiar to the one in Quantanammo Bay, Cuba. Halliburton does nothing to earn the Two Dollars for each meal an American Serviceman in Iraq eats.
http://www.halliburtonwatch.org/
Halliburton was scheduled to take control of the Dubai Ports in The United Arab Emiirate. The deal was canceled when Bush was unable to affect the transfer of the American Ports.
Now we see what some might suspect as similiar financial escapading from the Democrats.
Two years ago, Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity gave a $50 million contract to a start-up security company - Companion- owned by now-indicted businessman (TONY REZKO) Tony Rezko and a onetime Chicago cop, Daniel T. Frawley, to train Iraqi power-plant guards in the United States. An Iraqi leadership change left the deal in limbo. Now the company, Companion Security, is working to revive its contract.
Involved along with Antoin “Tony” Rezco, long time friend and neighbor of Democratic Presidential hopeful Barack Obama, and former cop Daniel T. Frawley, is Aiham Alsammarae. Alsammarae was accused of financial corruption by Iraqi authorities and jailed in Iraq last year before escaping and returning here.
LIKE FATHER LIKE SON --
Recently, Obama's campaign staff have been vetted by the IRS to disclose his connection to the criminal money generating underworld. Besides, his connections to the REZCO MAFIA types, his up-coming tax fraud charges — Obama needs to disclose why he is a MUSLIM "PATWANG-FWEEE" and disclose Obama's MUSLIM Farrakhan mob connection to Chicago's Trinity United Church of Christ. Its minister, and Obama's spiritual adviser, is the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. In 1982, the church launched Trumpet Newsmagazine; Wright's daughters serve as publisher and executive editor. Every year, the magazine makes awards in various categories. Last year, it gave the Dr. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. Trumpeter Award to a man it said "truly epitomized greatness." That man is Louis Farrakhan. Farrakhan and Chicago's Trinity United Church are trumpeting Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama as the second coming of the messiah. Obama should stop suppoting our intervention in IRAQ. It’s time to introduce this false, fake Xerox - X box Obama and invite the self-indicting thief plagiarizing pipsqueke "GLORK" Xerox - X box to meet the Buffalo "GAZOWNT-GAZIKKA" Police Department Buffalo Creek. He is MAD!!! --
OBAM YOU'RE NO JFK --
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Michelle Obama should be ashamed.
"GLORK" Michelle Obama should be ashamed of her separatist-racist connection to Farrakhan and Chicago's Trinity United Church trumpeting Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama as the second coming of the messiah. If Michelle Obama new what her husband -- the Hope-A-Dope, Fonster Monster -- Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama did in Harlem, she would wash her wide-open, Hus-suey loving MUSILM mouth out, with twenty-four (24) mule-team double-cross X-boX-BorraX. He is a MUSLIM "Glork" It’s time to introduce this false, fake "GLORK" Xerox - X box Obama and invite the self-indicting thief plagiarizing pipsqueke Xerox - X box to meet the Buffalo "GAZOWNT-GAZIKKA" Police Department Buffalo Creek. He's MAD!!!
http://www.halliburtonwatch.org/
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Obama’s efforts to connect to the Republican Party, specifically Bush, and Dick Chaney, of the Halliburton Company, dates back to the Presidents Grandfather, Prescott Bush, and indeed Chaney was once an executive officer of Halliburton.
The American military pounds Iraq with Artillary, bombs, and the like, destroying large sections of cities, and infra-structures, then Halliburton comes in to rebuild. Halliburton and Halliburton associated companies have raked in ten’s of billions.
Obama is just like the BIG HALIBURTAN. Haliburton has contracted to build detention centers in the U.S. similiar to the one in Quantanammo Bay, Cuba. Halliburton does nothing to earn the Two Dollars for each meal an American Serviceman in Iraq eats.
http://www.halliburtonwatch.org/
Halliburton was scheduled to take control of the Dubai Ports in The United Arab Emiirate. The deal was canceled when Bush was unable to affect the transfer of the American Ports.
Now we see what some might suspect as similiar financial escapading from the Democrats.
Two years ago, Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity gave a $50 million contract to a start-up security company - Companion- owned by now-indicted businessman (TONY REZKO) Tony Rezko and a onetime Chicago cop, Daniel T. Frawley, to train Iraqi power-plant guards in the United States. An Iraqi leadership change left the deal in limbo. Now the company, Companion Security, is working to revive its contract.
Involved along with Antoin “Tony” Rezco, long time friend and neighbor of Democratic Presidential hopeful Barack Obama, and former cop Daniel T. Frawley, is Aiham Alsammarae. Alsammarae was accused of financial corruption by Iraqi authorities and jailed in Iraq last year before escaping and returning here.
LIKE FATHER LIKE SON --
Recently, Obama's campaign staff have been vetted by the IRS to disclose his connection to the criminal money generating underworld. Besides, his connections to the REZCO MAFIA types, his up-coming tax fraud charges — Obama needs to disclose why he is a MUSLIM "PATWANG-FWEEE" and disclose Obama's MUSLIM Farrakhan mob connection to Chicago's Trinity United Church of Christ. Its minister, and Obama's spiritual adviser, is the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. In 1982, the church launched Trumpet Newsmagazine; Wright's daughters serve as publisher and executive editor. Every year, the magazine makes awards in various categories. Last year, it gave the Dr. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. Trumpeter Award to a man it said "truly epitomized greatness." That man is Louis Farrakhan. Farrakhan and Chicago's Trinity United Church are trumpeting Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama as the second coming of the messiah. Obama should stop suppoting our intervention in IRAQ. It’s time to introduce this false, fake Xerox - X box Obama and invite the self-indicting thief plagiarizing pipsqueke "GLORK" Xerox - X box to meet the Buffalo "GAZOWNT-GAZIKKA" Police Department Buffalo Creek. He is MAD!!! --
OBAM YOU'RE NO JFK --
"GLORK" Obama looks like Alfred E. Newman: "Tales Calculated To Drive You." He is a MUSLIM "Glork" He's MAD!!! Alfred E. Neuman is the fictional mascot of Mad. The face had drifted through American pictography for decades before being claimed by Mad editor Harvey Kurtzman after he spotted it on the bulletin board in the office of Ballantine Books editor Bernard Shir-Cliff, later a contributor to various magazines created by Kurtzman.
Obama needs to disclose why he is a MUSLIM "PATWANG-FWEEE" and stop suppoting our intervention in IRAQ. It’s time to introduce this false, fake "GLORK" Xerox - X box Obama and invite the self-indicting thief plagiarizing pipsqueke Xerox - X box to meet the Buffalo "GAZOWNT-GAZIKKA" Police Department Buffalo Creek.
Michelle Obama should be ashamed.
"GLORK" Michelle Obama should be ashamed of her separatist-racist connection to Farrakhan and Chicago's Trinity United Church trumpeting Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama as the second coming of the messiah. If Michelle Obama new what her husband -- the Hope-A-Dope, Fonster Monster -- Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama did in Harlem, she would wash her wide-open, Hus-suey loving MUSILM mouth out, with twenty-four (24) mule-team double-cross X-boX-BorraX. He is a MUSLIM "Glork" It’s time to introduce this false, fake "GLORK" Xerox - X box Obama and invite the self-indicting thief plagiarizing pipsqueke Xerox - X box to meet the Buffalo "GAZOWNT-GAZIKKA" Police Department Buffalo Creek. He's MAD!!!
http://www.halliburtonwatch.org/
THE SPEECH --
The Apologia has arrived and once again the self-indicting, separatist-racist Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama, promises to heal the wounds of the world. The speech is the rude awakening of mass messianism of his campaign. Apologetically, Obama the MUSLIM double-cross X-boX-BorraX has an astonishingly empty two-prawn echelon explanation of his misjudgment.
In the first prawn: with regard to his connection to separatist-racist Rev. Wright; Obama summons voodoo and juju to express slavery as beginning and ending with the Rev. Wright.
In the second prawn: Obama's speech takes credit for Ashley's dream. A dream of unity Martin Luther King, Jr. borrowed from Ashley for his historic "I Have A Dream" speech. In Obama's speech, the connective bond Ashley, the elderly black man and Obama's grandmother share; represents Obama's self-indicting rise to the Harvard Yard. For Obama, the grand flag of language is the semi-fore of words, bestowed upon our nation by the messiah-alumni from Harvard. Obama's Swoon-Song Apologia to the nation represents a failed hymn -- a hymn that fails to heal the nation, repair the world, or make this time different than all the rest. Obama's speech is a brilliant failure.
http://www.halliburtonwatch.org/
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