Phil Gramm's Upcoming Ambassadorship to Belarus
John McCain today announced his first foreign-policy appointment, should he become president. He will name Phil Gramm Ambassador to Belarus. McCain's decision apparently was precipitated by Gramm's insight into the American economy, when he said Americans were suffering from a "mental recession," and were "whining" about the economy. McCain obviously agrees with Gramm, because McCain himself said just a few months ago that a lot of the problems the economy is facing were "psychological" in nature. Just months before that, McCain said that the economy was making significant "progress."
But sending Gramm to Belarus may not reduce America's tensions with that part of Asia, or with Russia for that matter. Gramm may decide that Belarus is suffering from mental depression.
But sending Gramm to Belarus may not reduce America's tensions with that part of Asia, or with Russia for that matter. Gramm may decide that Belarus is suffering from mental depression.
posted by Robert Reich | 3:06 PM
44 Comments:
open mouth. insert foot.
anonymous Matt
A mental recession? Is that the same as a malaise? I guess Gramm and McCain did not learn from Jimmy Carter's mistake that you don't win votes by telling people their fiscal problems are psychological.
Why saddle Belarus with Dr Gramm? Maybe he should be appointed press attache to the US mission to Myanmar; they seem perfectly matched.
Phil Gramm...
hahaha balt
Someone has to be the pedantic one here, so I might as well point out that Belarus is in Europe, not Asia.
Psst!
Phil Gramm is QUANTITATIVELY CORRECT!
You so-called “Liberals” need to stop drinking the Kool-Aid!
My favorite quote:
If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich. JFK
Blue collar America cannot continue to be trampled upon without consequences. Our nation's leaders have become insubordinate to say the least. It is time for a congressional clean sweep and get some people in Congress who actually feel some pain. Denial and procrastination are sending Americans down a one way road to nowhere.
The problem that Gramm has is he actually believes the numbers that the Gov't puts out.
Let's face it, they're not accurate.
GDP is only going up if you're understating inflation, and we all know by now that they're understating inflation. Even my Mom doesn't think the CPI is accurate anymore. (No dis on Mom, it's just that she's a Republican.)
So the only question is by how much are they understating it.
If you drop the GDP deflator by 2% more, we've been in a recession for most of the Bush term of office, and we're probably in technical depression territory. Since that seems wrong, it's probably not that bad. But it's hard to tell. Still, it would explain why real wages are the same as when Bush came into office, wouldn't it?
Let's focus on who Obama will surround himself with as advisors and do'ers! Phil Gramm is who he is... judge him as you like and the party he keeps.
I want to see something bold by Obama's team. No more speeches and pep talks. Let's get to work on building a better future for our children and their children.
As I've said before, we need to elevate the role of the nation's science officer and create a cabinet level of position that is equal or above the DOE and its departments.
If we're going to bail-out Wall Street and the banks then we should be prepared to invest heavily in new infrastructure starting with energy technologies and transportation systems. What are we waiting for?
We have an energy crisis, a broken financial system, no foreign policy to speak of and little to show for our control of vast resources and armies.
I want to know who Obama is going to appoint to help turn this country around when he takes office. If it's Dr. Reich as Secretary of the Treasury then that would be a very good start. But I want to see a science officer right next to Obama and his VP.
Jim,
There you go again (“you” meaning you so-called “Liberals”).
See paragraph 2 of this comment.
Also see the immediate proof of my assertion in the very next comment offered after mine.
With you so-called “Liberals”, everything traces back to some hair brained conspiracy theory.
Bernie was correct!
QUANTITATIVELY CORRECT!...
that people are whiners?
You betcha!
Good evening Mr. Secretary,
To me, it is a matter of simple judgement. I talked about it in my current affairs blog, http://www.outsiderviews.com, noting that he appears to be out to lunch and has no clue about what we little people have to deal with. I wonder how you all dealt with this idiot when you all were in office.
Mike,
No, it’s a matter of simply telling the TRUTH about the quantitative FACTS!
SBVOR -
Where are these facts you speak of?
The CPI report that says that inflation is low? Really, you believe that inflation is low? You can say that with a straight face?
It's not a secret (or a "conspiracy") that they've changed the way that the CPI is computed several times since high readings under Nixon, Ford and Carter became so problematic. Actually, that's a "fact" that's on the Gov't website.
Measured the same way that Carter did, inflation's well above 10%.
You can find all this out by reading the same website that distributes the CPI report. Don't be lazy! Read up! Start with "Owner's Imputed Rent", and work up to "Hedonic Adjustments". You might be surprised.
And if inflation is understated (as most non-kooks now believe), then it's quite likely, nay, almost unavoidable, that the GDP deflator is off as well.
(Oh, and I'm not a Liberal ('not that there's anything wrong with that'))
(I'd probably be a Republican if they still tried to deliver balanced budgets and kept their soiled hands off the Constitution, of which I'm a fan.)
This post has been removed by the author.
Sorry to hijack the discussion a bit, but for rational, thoughtful analysis of gov't data,
this article is really, really well done, and the comments are also very enlightening.
And no, this fellow has no love for Shadowstats.
McBush fancies himself as funny???
tt
Just think how humorous a McBush/LIEberman ticket will be.
tt
Greetings Mr Secretary,
Thank you for your simple understanding of such a complicated mess. You are so correct about the "socialized capitalism". Since Reagan the working class has always had to sacrifice and tighten our belts. I'm so sick of Gov't for the wealthy and connected I could puke blood. Please help.
Easy for Phil Gramm to say; a man who has suckled at the teat of government all his life...
While advising the McCain campaign, Gramm was being paid by a UBS to lobby Congress about the U.S. mortgage crisis. During this time, "the mortgage industry pressed Congress to roll back strong state rules that sought to stem the rise of predatory tactics used by lenders and brokers to place homeowners in high-cost mortgages." He was deregistered as a lobbyist for UBS on April 18th, 2008.
Gramm is archetypical of the problems we face in this nation today.
Let the people of Belarus deal with him.
Woah, we can dispute statistics (but some of them are regarding a different post), but I'm amazed that of 22 comments, only one so far has picked up on the fact that Belarus is indeed in Europe, and not Asia.
Americans may or may not be whiners, but even educated folks seem to be woefully ignorant of geography.
Of course, since the intent of McCain's remarks were to suggest that he would "banish" Gramm (for saying things similar to what he has repeatedly said himself, and despite the fact that Gramm was representing McCain at the WSJ editorial board that same day), I suppose Professor Reich got carried away and thought he meant "Belorussiastan" or some other far away place.
Jim Driscoll,
1) I described CPI as “tame” (not low). History proves me correct. Beyond that, Personal Income continues to grow faster than CPI.
2) But, unlike Mr. Reich, I believe inflation is, at present, a larger concern than recession (which ain’t happening). As long as the tyranny of the ignorant Environmental Extremists prevails, soaring energy costs will continue to result in sub par growth in global economies. As one facet of a more rational energy policy, we need to Drill Here, Drill Now.
3) Any attempt to calculate an historically comparable CPI requires changes in the calculation in response to changes in consumer consumption. If these changes were not made, the figures would be far less historically comparable.
This issue is discussed by the non-partisan BLS here.
What is sad is that McCain doesn’t have stones enough to publicly admit that Gramm was 100% correct on all counts (before the stoneless Gramm himself caved in to pressure and revised his “whiners” comment to exclude all but politicians).
Bernie was correct (about the Left AND the Right).
I said it before Gramm did and I’ll say it again:
What a bunch of:
WHINY
CRY-BABIES
Geez!
Jim Driscoll,
Thanks for you reference,"This Article," exploring the accuracy of published inflation numbers and GDP numbers... very informative.
Amidst all the possible data weaknesses (e.g., hedonic substitution adjustments such as dog food for rib steak in the basket of foods, incompetence, lack of funding, manipulation etc.) and my being entirely unknowledgeable here, I took comfort in one expert's response (who was impressed with the professionalism of people working in government data gathering agencies):
"Overall we are saved by the law of large numbers that the errors probably offset, and the data does a good job of capturing the underlying trends and changes in trends."
On the other hand, Jim, statistics are indeed suspect or inconsistent in regard to what people are saying or feeling ... e.g., as reported: Consumer Confidence at is an all time low; same for Right Track/Wrong Track trend data at 50:40 1998 and now 15:75 and the feelings index about Personal Financial situation which is at an all-time low of 25:55, etc.
But as one respondent said, `Statistics on Savings rates and Debt and so on are consistent with extroardinarily high levels of distress.´
With this in mind, here is my final TABLE 13 summarizing different aspects of our Government's Historical Financial Performance (TABLES 1-12 in Dr. Reich´s earlier essay this week)under various Presidencies.
___________________________________
TABLE 13 AVE. ANNUAL INFLATION RATE PER PRESIDENTIAL TERM
___________________________________
Johnson....1963-68.....2.4%
Nixon......1969-73.....5.0%
Ford.......1974-76.....8.7%
Carter.....1977-80.....9.7%
Reagan.....1981-88.....4.7%
Bush Sr....1989-92.....4.4%
Clinton....1993-2000...2.6%
Bush Jr....2001-2007...2.7%
Bush Jr....June 2008...4.2%
SUMMARY:
Average Annual Inflation Under:
Republicans............4.6%
Democrats..............4.1%
COMMENTS:
The average annual growth rate in inflation has been about 10% higher under Republican administrations ... perhaps distorted by very high suspect inflation data accuracy during Ford and Carter´s administrations.
As we all know, the Inflation Rate is calculated from the CPI. It´s the percentage increase in price of a basket of products over a specific period of time. It´s caused by an increase in money supply and credit (such as occurred in gigantic proportions under Greenspan´s Fed Reserve time (2001-2007) beyond the proportion of available goods and services.
Frank Thomas, The Netherlands
Jim said...
"I suppose Professor Reich got carried away and thought he meant "Belorussiastan" or some other far away place."
No harm no foul. It's easy to lump former soviet states into one group. Some were in eastern europe and some in central asia, etc.
No harm, no foul?
That is an amazingly dismissive attitude to the truth.
It's so easily to just lump all people together, we're all just Earthlings, after all.
As Mike in Fresno said, some people might consider this "pedantic", but I think it's just basic fact checking.
If you can't get this right, not sure how you keep all the economic statistics straight.
That said, I'm not saying it's life changing either - but I'm a bit shocked at your attitude.
Of course, I wasn't nearly as worried about the original mistake in the post.
Frank,
Examining inflation absent an examination of Personal Income is a fool’s errand (if the shoe fits).
Here is a more complete picture of the relevant data. Go analyze.
Do we miss Hillary yet? lol
ll
Does Roger Ailes not have conference calls every coupla mornings with the Republican candidates and the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth? Old John McCain took his old bus tour from New England, down through the South, and back up through Ohio. Bush carried Ohio, and I read several months ago that Ohio was leading the nation in home foreclosures. Unless he's had his hearing aid turned off, McCain had to get an earful during that bus tour. Did he not report back to Roger Ailes and the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth? Gramm should keep talking.
I'm coming at it from the side opposite Gramm, but I agree with him wholeheartedly: all this whining about gas and food prices! Truth is, we drive and eat way too much. Am I the only one delighted with the skyrocketing prices? Average national food stamp benefit is $250 per month. That's more than enough if you eat meat only infrequently and load up on bulk staples (beans, rice, etc). But it certainly isn't enough money if you're shelling out $5 per box of cereal.
This is a mental recession once you realize how little you need to consume in order to stay healthy. I wish America would follow the UK in making noise about household waste of food.
Yeah, how about that Phil Gramm, eh?
How about that? We're ALL mental except him. How nice.
Well, I'm one of those GD whiners! GD it!
That's the thinking of someone who's of the country club set AND who just doesn't want to be BOTHERED with the rest of us. Great guy.
And that JOLLY, fun loving McBush would make him ambassador to Belarus, but he's not sure that the citizens of Minsk would welcome that.
Ha-ha-ha...ho-ho-ho....sooo very funnny.....NOT.
Grrrrr.......
sbvor, at 5:48 PM, You're bat-shit crazy.
I don't like you anymore.
tt
sbvor:
Examining inflation absent an examination of Personal Income is a fool’s errand (if the shoe fits).
As usual you are ever the presenter of obscure, meaningless information, even though you don't realize it.
What exactly does an examination of Personal Incomes compared to Inflation Rates tell us? Since Personal Incomes can be both a cause and effect of increased inflation a much more detailed analysis would be necessary to derive any meaningful correlation.
I have mentioned to you before that using Personal Income statistics as proof of a premise must be done carefully since it is an aggregate number that cannot be easily spread across the spectrum of the population. The CPI is a statistic derived from a database that is assumed to be generic to the population.
Keep in mind that when an exec earning $1,000,000 a year gets a 3% annual increase his annual Personal Income goes up by $30,000. When the accountant earning $50,000 gets a 3% annual increase his annual Personal Income goes up only by $1,500. When a husband or wife takes a second or third job to try and stay up with inflation that adds to Personal Income.
True analysts learn early on not to select data based on a preconceived notion of the anticipated result lest they tend to overlook data belying that preconceived notion. Further, they learn to walk softly on cause and effect and correlative rationales.
Any idiot can combine sets of numbers on a chart and present them as proof of something (if the shoe fits) when in fact the graphical comparison proves absolutely nothing.
tiptoe:
One can only hope that your initial impressions of sbvor were influenced by alcohol or drugs.
In your more sober moments you exhibit excellent judgement.
TipToe,
Thanks for the belly laugh.
Gotta love them warm hearted, loving, ever so tolerant so-called “Liberals”.
P.S.) I’m a retired working stiff. I get by on an annual budget which is less than a first year school teacher makes. I scrimped and saved to buy stock during my working life. I now sell that stock from time to time to fund my meager annual budget.
Obama wants to nearly double the taxes I pay on my very first dollar of income. Is that the so-called “Liberal” idea of so-called “progressive” tax fairness? I’ll pass!
sbvor:
We "liberals" love and are tolerant of all except, arrogant conservative idiots. We find especially distasteful those of that genre who exhibit no ability to comprehend what they are trying to say.
If your seeking sympathy over your retirement plight, look elsewhere. I probably have less to live on than you and I'm not complaining about actions that will benefit our entire populace.
Life's a bitch and then you die.
or you marry one
brooklyn:
Did that too!
Or as Kanye West says:
Life's a bitch -- depending on how you dress her
Claiming that Belarus is a part of Asia is similar to claiming that the US is a part of South America (in a geographical sense...)
I hope McCain and his ilk continue to condescend to voters that somehow their economic troubles are of their own making while the federal government continues to bail out the big guys. (I think GM is next in line for a big hit of taxpayer money, while average people who can't afford health insurance are told to quit whining and tighten their belts). We have socialism for big corporations in this country. As long as McCain continues on his current path of critizing taxpayers who "whine" because their dollars are funding a trillion dollar bogus war that was a gift to big oil, he will lose the election. Obama o8!
One of the talking heads called Phil Gramm "the Marie Antoinette of economics." Plus at the same time Phil Gramm was talking to the WSJ, dimwith US Labor Secretary was also giving the WSJ an interview. Musta been Republican day at WSJ.
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